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slink
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« on: May 06, 2009, 12:07:45 PM » |
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Ok, I've finally had a chance to set this up...
As some of you may have read, I've been tracking series' with the potential for a 3 game sweep since the beginning of the season and it has proven my thoughts correct thus far - that it is very difficult to sweep 3 games. Thus far (as of Sunday, May 4th) there have been 47 chances for a team to sweep its 3 game set with only 19 of them being successful (19-28) - 40% success rate (or rather a 60% failure rate). But that doesn't clearly tell the whole story. Below I have broken it down further into 2 categories - a home team with the chance to sweep the series vs. a road team with a chance to sweep the series. There is definately a clear play here!
A team @ home with a chance to sweep the series has done so 16 of 27 chances (16-11) - a 59% success rate. (This past Sunday the home team was 3-0 to sweep)
however...
A team on the road with a chance to sweep the series has done so only 3 of 20 chances (3-17) - 15% success rate (AN 80% FAILURE RATE)
I will continue to update the stats as we move through the season.
Good Luck!
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« Last Edit: May 15, 2009, 09:50:43 AM by slink »
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slink
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2009, 10:13:20 AM » |
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So the numbers stayed pretty consistent through Sunday's games. A total of 9 teams went into yesterday with a chance to sweep their respective series (6 home teams and 3 road teams).
The home teams with a chance to sweep went 3 -3. The road teams 1 - 2.
Updated stats:
At home with a chance to sweep: 16 - 14 (57.6% success overall)
On road with chance to sweep: 4 - 18 (18% success overall). The home team is winning 82% of game 3's to avoid being swept.
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mhf109b
MVP
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Posts: 437
I like turtles!!!
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2009, 10:50:56 AM » |
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Great stats! Are you planning on following when a team is in danger of being swept (whether home or away) and posting when the situation arises?   |
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60% of the time it works EVERYTIME!
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slink
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2009, 01:09:55 PM » |
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Wed. May 13
Washington @ SF - SF W2 w/ chance to sweep @ home.
At home to sweep series, the home team is currently 19 - 14 (57.5% success) to complete the sweep.
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slink
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2009, 10:11:15 AM » |
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I actually missed a game yesterday... Cincinnati @ Arizona
Cincy (with the best road record in MLB - 13-5) won the first 2 of the series and promptly won game 3 with one of the NL's most dominant starters on the mound (Jonny Cueto - 4-1, 1.93 ERA) vs a rookie (Bryan Augenstein) making his first big league start for Arizona (the team with the most home losses in MLB - 9-15).
Yesterdays results
Was @ SF - Was wins 6-3 to avoid being swept
Cin @ ARI - Cin wins 10-3 to complete road sweep
Updated Totals
At HOME with chance to sweep:
Yesterday: 0-1
Running Total: 19 - 15 (55.9% success rate)
On ROAD with chance to sweep:
Yesterday: 1-0
Running Total: 5 - 18 (21.7% success rate or 78.3% failure rate)
Happy wagering!
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slink
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2009, 10:14:42 AM » |
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On tap for today are 5 home teams looking to sweep their respective series:
1:05pm - Fla @ MIL
1:10pm - Det @ MIN
2:05pm - Sea @ TEX
2;20pm - Sd @ CUBS
7:05pm - St.L @ PIT
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« Last Edit: May 14, 2009, 10:34:26 AM by slink »
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slink
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2009, 09:49:00 AM » |
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On tap for today are 5 home teams looking to sweep their respective series:
1:05pm - Fla @ MIL
1:10pm - Det @ MIN
2:05pm - Sea @ TEX
2;20pm - Sd @ CUBS
7:05pm - St.L @ PIT
Fla @ MIL - Mil W3 Det @ MIN - Min W3 Sea @ TEX - Tex W3 Sd @ CUBS - Cubs W3 St.L @ PIT - StL W3 Home team goes 4-1 to complete series sweep Updated Totals @ home to sweep: 23 - 16 ( 58.9% success rate) on road w/ chance to sweep: 5 - 18 (21.7% success rate or 78.3% failure rate) |
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balls2thawall
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2009, 03:37:33 PM » |
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so anything today..
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slink
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2009, 05:57:42 AM » |
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so anything today..
Generally Wednesday's (Mon. - Wed. series), Thursday's, and Sunday's. I won't be able to post anything tomorrow as I am travelling. |
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El Hacko
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2009, 04:03:48 PM » |
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Very sharp thread Slinky! It will be interesting to see how these stats hold up as the season progresses. Thanks for your time and efforts on this one |
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2010 posted plays
NCAAB 11-13-1
NBA 1-1
2009 posted plays
NCAAF 77-70-2
NFL 13-20
NBA 0-1
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breamteam
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2009, 08:12:41 AM » |
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what sweeps are available today, may 17th?
Philly road 4 game sweep (not sure if rules apply to 4 games sweeps. you'd think it would be tougher to pull off)
mets road 4 game sweep
detroit at home
yankees at home
texas at home
i think these are available. sorry for errors. any others?
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mlb record: 6-3 +$337
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$CashCow$
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2009, 10:06:12 AM » |
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Sweeps today are the following: Home Teams Avoiding a Sweep:***SF at home lost last 3 to mets. NAtional TV tonight throwing Cain who is 3-1 vs Pelfrey who is 4-0...Take SF. ***Nats at home...Phillies took last 3 from Nats. Phillies on Road, so this qualifies. besides nats throwing Zimmerman who is 2-1 GO w/ NATS Road teams Avoiding Sweeps:***Blue Jays at home w/ Halladay on the Hill (Hard to go against a 7-1 record at home/Cy Young...etc... I'd prefer the sweep! ***Rangers took last two from Angels. Rangers at Home, but Angels throwing Weaver 3-1 w/ 2.45 ERA...I'd Go Angels ***A's look to avoid a sweep vs tigers throwing Cahill 2-2 vs Galarraga 3-3...Id roll with A's here in this spot ***Reds at SD look to avoid sweep with Arroya 5-2 w/ 7.0 era(ouch) vs Struggling Peavy 2-5 4.33 era....take Arroyo Not a sweep but a nice spot:Twins at NYY are not in a sweep spot until Monday as they play a 4 game set...With that said, today is their best opportunity to avoid as Pettite on hill tomorrow at 3-1. Today Slowey throws for twins...he's 5-1 w/4.9era vs Burnetts 2-1 and 5.36 era....if their going to avoid its going to be today IMO GO Twins today... Hope this helps, CashCow what sweeps are available today, may 17th?
Philly road 4 game sweep (not sure if rules apply to 4 games sweeps. you'd think it would be tougher to pull off)
mets road 4 game sweep
detroit at home
yankees at home
texas at home
i think these are available. sorry for errors. any others?
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« Last Edit: May 17, 2009, 10:08:07 AM by $CashCow$ »
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From JasonPierrePaul "Once in the backfield...I'll hit the quarterback and give him every piece of muscle I got in my body and just 'try to break his neck'... I don’t like Qb's...I love this game... "you can hurt somebody, and you won’t get in trouble for it!"
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breamteam
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2009, 10:11:59 AM » |
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Sweeps today are the following: Home Teams Avoiding a Sweep:***SF at home lost last 3 to mets. NAtional TV tonight throwing Cain who is 3-1 vs Pelfrey who is 4-0...Take SF. ***Nats at home...Phillies took last 3 from Nats. Phillies on Road, so this qualifies. besides nats throwing Zimmerman who is 2-1 GO w/ NATS Road teams Avoiding Sweeps:***Blue Jays at home w/ Halladay on the Hill (Hard to go against a 7-1 record at home/Cy Young...etc... I'd prefer the sweep! ***Rangers took last two from Angels. Rangers at Home, but Angels throwing Weaver 3-1 w/ 2.45 ERA...I'd Go Angels ***A's look to avoid a sweep vs tigers throwing Cahill 2-2 vs Galarraga 3-3...Id roll with A's here in this spot ***Reds at SD look to avoid sweep with Arroya 5-2 w/ 7.0 era(ouch) vs Struggling Peavy 2-5 4.33 era....take Arroyo Not a sweep but a nice spot:Twins at NYY are not in a sweep spot until Monday as they play a 4 game set...With that said, today is their best opportunity to avoid as Pettite on hill tomorrow at 3-1. Today Slowey throws for twins...he's 5-1 w/4.9era vs Burnetts 2-1 and 5.36 era....if their going to avoid its going to be today IMO GO Twins today... Hope this helps, CashCow what sweeps are available today, may 17th?
Philly road 4 game sweep (not sure if rules apply to 4 games sweeps. you'd think it would be tougher to pull off)
mets road 4 game sweep
detroit at home
yankees at home
texas at home
i think these are available. sorry for errors. any others?
nice info |
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mlb record: 6-3 +$337
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slink
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2009, 12:33:40 PM » |
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Sweeps today are the following: Home Teams Avoiding a Sweep:***SF at home lost last 3 to mets. NAtional TV tonight throwing Cain who is 3-1 vs Pelfrey who is 4-0...Take SF. ***Nats at home...Phillies took last 3 from Nats. Phillies on Road, so this qualifies. besides nats throwing Zimmerman who is 2-1 GO w/ NATS Road teams Avoiding Sweeps:***Blue Jays at home w/ Halladay on the Hill (Hard to go against a 7-1 record at home/Cy Young...etc... I'd prefer the sweep! ***Rangers took last two from Angels. Rangers at Home, but Angels throwing Weaver 3-1 w/ 2.45 ERA...I'd Go Angels ***A's look to avoid a sweep vs tigers throwing Cahill 2-2 vs Galarraga 3-3...Id roll with A's here in this spot ***Reds at SD look to avoid sweep with Arroya 5-2 w/ 7.0 era(ouch) vs Struggling Peavy 2-5 4.33 era....take Arroyo Not a sweep but a nice spot:Twins at NYY are not in a sweep spot until Monday as they play a 4 game set...With that said, today is their best opportunity to avoid as Pettite on hill tomorrow at 3-1. Today Slowey throws for twins...he's 5-1 w/4.9era vs Burnetts 2-1 and 5.36 era....if their going to avoid its going to be today IMO GO Twins today... Hope this helps, CashCow what sweeps are available today, may 17th?
Philly road 4 game sweep (not sure if rules apply to 4 games sweeps. you'd think it would be tougher to pull off)
mets road 4 game sweep
detroit at home
yankees at home
texas at home
i think these are available. sorry for errors. any others?
nice info SF is the only home team looking to AVOID being swept (lost first 2 of series) 3 straight. Washington is looking to AVOID being swept 4 straight. |
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jumperjack
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2009, 09:39:58 AM » |
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Sweeps today are the following: Home Teams Avoiding a Sweep:***SF at home lost last 3 to mets. NAtional TV tonight throwing Cain who is 3-1 vs Pelfrey who is 4-0...Take SF. ***Nats at home...Phillies took last 3 from Nats. Phillies on Road, so this qualifies. besides nats throwing Zimmerman who is 2-1 GO w/ NATS Road teams Avoiding Sweeps:***Blue Jays at home w/ Halladay on the Hill (Hard to go against a 7-1 record at home/Cy Young...etc... I'd prefer the sweep! ***Rangers took last two from Angels. Rangers at Home, but Angels throwing Weaver 3-1 w/ 2.45 ERA...I'd Go Angels ***A's look to avoid a sweep vs tigers throwing Cahill 2-2 vs Galarraga 3-3...Id roll with A's here in this spot ***Reds at SD look to avoid sweep with Arroya 5-2 w/ 7.0 era(ouch) vs Struggling Peavy 2-5 4.33 era....take Arroyo Not a sweep but a nice spot:Twins at NYY are not in a sweep spot until Monday as they play a 4 game set...With that said, today is their best opportunity to avoid as Pettite on hill tomorrow at 3-1. Today Slowey throws for twins...he's 5-1 w/4.9era vs Burnetts 2-1 and 5.36 era....if their going to avoid its going to be today IMO GO Twins today... Hope this helps, CashCow what sweeps are available today, may 17th?
Philly road 4 game sweep (not sure if rules apply to 4 games sweeps. you'd think it would be tougher to pull off)
mets road 4 game sweep
detroit at home
yankees at home
texas at home
i think these are available. sorry for errors. any others?
nice info SF is the only home team looking to AVOID being swept (lost first 2 of series) 3 straight. Washington is looking to AVOID being swept 4 straight. The Giants lost the first 3 games to the Mets before winning last night. All 3 home teams completed their sweeps yesterday. |
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Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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balls2thawall
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2009, 03:46:32 PM » |
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anything tonight
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breamteam
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2009, 05:18:34 PM » |
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anything tonight
the brew crew is going for road sweep, i believe may play cards |
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mlb record: 6-3 +$337
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skyline69
Passenger
Offline
Posts: 4
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2009, 09:42:20 PM » |
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Do the 4 game series come into play in your stats?? Or are they just based on 3 game series ?? TIA
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slink
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2009, 11:21:56 AM » |
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Do the 4 game series come into play in your stats?? Or are they just based on 3 game series ?? TIA
I keep track of both. There has been 3 instances this season where a home team has had a chance to sweep all 4. Baltimore at Boston a couple of weeks ago, Toronto yesterday at home to White Sox, and a third that got broken up in game 3. So Boston and Toronto are the only 2 teams to complete a 4 game home sweep... |
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slink
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2009, 09:53:29 AM » |
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Updated Sweep totals as of May 18
At HOME to sweep: 29-16 (64.4% success rate)
The stat includes home teams completing a 4 game home sweep (2-0 - Toronto and Boston). The stat also includes the 3rd game for the 3 game sweep plus the 4th game to complete a 4 game sweep.
Home teams are 10-1 in the last 11 chances to sweep the series.
On ROAD to sweep: 6-20 (23% success rate)
Includes the NYM this past weekend winning the 3rd game of the 4 game series and losing the 4th game. So teams looking to complete a 4 game road sweep are 0-1 in the 4th game.
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slink
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2009, 10:39:54 AM » |
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Sorry everyone... got busy with work and missed yesterday's games...
May 20
Pit @ WAS - Pit W2 - W3rd
Laa @ SEA - La W2 - Sea W3rd
Nym @ LAD - LA W2 - LA W3rd
@ HOME to sweep: 1-0
updated total: 30 - 16 (65.2% success rate)
on ROAD to sweep: 1-1
updated total: 7 - 21 (75% failure rate)
Pittsburgh has a chance for a 4 game ROAD sweep today... current record for a 4 game road sweep is 0-1
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slink
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2009, 11:06:32 AM » |
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May 21st Games
@ HOME to sweep:
1pm Tex @ DET
2pm Min @ CWS
7pm Bal @ NYY
Tor @ BOS
8pm Cubs @ STL
10pm Sf @ SD
on ROAD to sweep:
4pm Oak @ TB
7pm Pit @ WAS (game 4 - Pitt won 1st 3)
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Wilk914
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2009, 11:47:38 AM » |
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hey Slink,
The Rays beat the A's on Monday 13-4. Not a sweep scenario.
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slink
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2009, 09:41:21 AM » |
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hey Slink,
The Rays beat the A's on Monday 13-4. Not a sweep scenario.
Thanks for the correction. I was doing this quickly and had it the other way. |
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slink
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2009, 09:49:24 AM » |
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May 21st Games
@ HOME to sweep:
1pm Tex @ DET
2pm Min @ CWS
7pm Bal @ NYY
Tor @ BOS
8pm Cubs @ STL
10pm Sf @ SD
on ROAD to sweep:
4pm Oak @ TB
7pm Pit @ WAS (game 4 - Pitt won 1st 3)
May 21st Games @ HOME to sweep: 1pm Tex @ DET - 4-3 DET2pm Min @ CWS - 20-1 Min7pm Bal @ NYY - 7-4 NYY Tor @ BOS - 5-1 BOS8pm Cubs @ STL - 3-1 STL10pm Sf @ SD - 3-2 SDHome team goes 5-1 to complete sweep on ROAD to sweep: 7pm Pit @ WAS (game 4 - Pitt won 1st 3) - 5-4 WASHome team wins to avoid 4 game sweep UPDATED STATS @ HOME to sweep: 35 - 17 ( 67.3% success rate) (@ hm to sweep 4 game series 2-0) on ROAD to sweep: 7 - 22 ( 76% failure rate) (on rd to sweep 4 gm series 0-2) |
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