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vegas legend
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« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2009, 07:46:09 PM » |
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The way I have been following it is
Play on LAA, Arz, and SF?
If Bost wins tonight play tommorow would be Det. And Florida is only a play if they win tonight because it is only the 2nd game of the series?
Is this correct from what your statistic are showing??????
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heart222
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« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2009, 04:29:48 AM » |
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hi someone asked about how many series have been played. well with each team playing 2 series a week. not counting the 2 game series you have 30 series a week. so if my math was correct atthe time of the question there would have been 500 series with 200 of them going into sweep mode. so 300 splits and 200 losers as the loser go to game 3. would take to long to figure out what you would lose on the 200 win 2,s and what would happen on the 300 1-1 games. are you going to martingale? so yanks are 2-1 and lose next day they are also 2-1 are you betting 1 unit or now 2 units? think its much better to bet home teams when they have won 2 to sweep. interesting idea. earlier last year i looked at the idea of betting against teams who had won 2 stright to lose next game not including series. 2008 showed slight profit. series idea may make more sense.
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slink
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« Reply #52 on: August 20, 2009, 10:14:57 AM » |
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The Bosox series with Detroit is 4 games not 3. Series ends Thurs. afternoon.
Sorry, was on vacation. I know the Det/Bos series was a 4 gamer. I started tracking the stats at the beginning of the year based on a theory that I had that it is difficult to sweep 3 games in a row from a team. So, what my stats are based on for 4 game series is 2 things: winning the first 3 games of the series (@ HOME to sweep) and then if the 3rd game is won by the team that won games 1 and 2, I also track the percentage of winning all 4 games (@ HOME to sweep 4 games). So in that specific case, Boston did win game 3, so that win was added to the @ HOME to sweep stat track, and then they lost game 4 which was then added to the @ HOME to sweep 4 games I hope this helps. |
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slink
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« Reply #53 on: August 20, 2009, 10:44:39 AM » |
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Updated stats up to and including Aug.19
@ HOME to sweep: 99 - 70 (58.6%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 4 - 11 (26.7%)
on Road to sweep: 41 - 56 (42.3%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 4 (33.3%)
On tap today:
@ HOME looking to sweep:
7:05pm Arizona (+170) @ PHILLY (-180)
7:05pm Baltimore (+260) @ TAMPA BAY (-280)
on Road looking to sweep:
12:35pm San Fran (-137) @ CINCINNATI (+127)
7:05pm Colorado (-136) @ WASHINGTON (+126)
7:05pm Boston (-165) @ TORONTO (+155)
7:05pm La Angels (-158) @ CLEVELAND (+148)
Good Luck!
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slink
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« Reply #54 on: August 21, 2009, 10:32:58 AM » |
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Updated stats up to and including Aug.20
@ HOME to sweep: 100 - 71 (58.5%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 4 - 11 (26.7%)
on Road to sweep: 43 - 58 (42.5%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 4 (33.3%)
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majord
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« Reply #55 on: August 23, 2009, 10:31:47 AM » |
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SUNDAY PLAYS BASED ON YOUR SYSTEM
Updated stats up to and including Aug.20
@ HOME to sweep: 100 - 71 (58.5%)
PITTSBURGH
HOUSTON
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 4 - 11 (26.7%)
CHICAGO CUBS
on Road to sweep: 43 - 58 (42.5%)
TAMPA BAY
KANSAS CITY
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 4 (33.3%)
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majord
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« Reply #56 on: August 24, 2009, 07:03:54 AM » |
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Not so good this weekend with the % plays going 1-4
SUNDAY PLAYS BASED ON YOUR SYSTEM
Updated stats up to and including Aug.20
@ HOME to sweep: 100 - 71 (58.5%)
PITTSBURGH LOSER
HOUSTON LOSER
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 4 - 11 (26.7%)
CHICAGO CUBS WINNER
on Road to sweep: 43 - 58 (42.5%)
TAMPA BAY LOSER
KANSAS CITYLOSER
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 4 (33.3%)
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Baller
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« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2009, 02:27:50 PM » |
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the series plays what kind of bankroll would you recommend for a person that bets around $25 - $50 a game? Thanks  |
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slink
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« Reply #58 on: August 27, 2009, 08:51:15 AM » |
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Updated stats up to and including Aug.26
@ HOME to sweep: 103 - 75 (57.9%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 4 - 12 (25%)
on Road to sweep: 44 - 61 (41.9%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 4 (33.3%)
On tap today:
3 home teams looking to sweep 3 gamer and Red Sox looking to sweep 4 gamer; 2 Road teams looking for sweeps:
@ HOME to sweep:
1:10pm Nym (+210) @ FLA (-230)
2:15pm Hou (+250) @ STL (-270)
7:10pm Cws (+107) @ BOS (-117) game 4
10:15pm Ari (+116) @ SF (-126)
on Road to sweep:
2:05pm Cin (+155) @ MIL (-165)
7:10pm Sd (+225) @ ATL (-245)
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WCU10
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« Reply #59 on: August 30, 2009, 06:47:21 AM » |
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So you are betting the team NOT to get swept when they are the home team and betting on the team "to sweep" when they are the home team?
It looks like the odds are favorable to those above systems.
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majord
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« Reply #60 on: August 30, 2009, 09:23:13 AM » |
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Florida looks like the play today.
Home vs. San Diego after having lost the first two games.
md
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slink
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« Reply #61 on: September 17, 2009, 12:23:05 PM » |
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It's been a while, but here are the updated stats as of this morning:
@ HOME to sweep: 123 - 86 (58.9%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 6 - 13 (31.6%)
on Road to sweep: 56 - 76 (42%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 5 (28.6%)
On tap today are 3 HOME teams looking to complete the sweep:
Was @ PHI
Laa @ BOS
Nym @ ATL
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slink
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« Reply #62 on: September 24, 2009, 11:13:58 AM » |
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here are the updated stats as of this morning:
@ HOME to sweep: 129 - 89 (59.2%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 7 - 13 (35%)
on Road to sweep: 59 - 78 (43%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 5 (28.6%)
On tap today are 2 ROAD teams looking to complete the sweep:
Det @ CLE
Cin @ PIT
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slink
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« Reply #63 on: October 06, 2009, 01:59:17 PM » |
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So here are the season ending sweep stats...
@ HOME to sweep: 141 - 93 (60.3%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 8 - 15 (34.8%)
on Road to sweep: 67 - 83 (44.7%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 5 (33.3%)
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slink
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« Reply #64 on: October 07, 2009, 09:35:37 AM » |
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Wasn't that Tigers/Twins game a great one?!?!? Playoff baseball is so good.
For next season I will try to keep track of how the money line plays out on these sweeps so we can get a better $ value around the numbers
Good luck to everyone in the playoffs!
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goldengreek
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« Reply #65 on: April 07, 2010, 10:04:50 AM » |
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So here are the season ending sweep stats...
@ HOME to sweep: 141 - 93 (60.3%)
@ HOME to sweep 4 games: 8 - 15 (34.8%)
on Road to sweep: 67 - 83 (44.7%)
on Road to sweep 4 games: 2 - 5 (33.3%)
SF GOING FOR THE 3 GAME ROAD SWEEP |
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heart222
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« Reply #66 on: April 21, 2010, 02:56:20 AM » |
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Hi I have seen these numbers elsewhere. I think the problem is the prices you have to lay. basically your betting on the home teams to sweep or break up the sweep. I went back and looked at a few teams last year and didnt see much of a + uit situation.. Looks like this year is starting out same numbers. best of luck. heart222
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slink
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« Reply #67 on: April 30, 2010, 12:52:50 PM » |
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Tracking things a bit differently this year... going to track the lines on the games as well. So I will keep running totals on $100 wager per play as follows:
Home Sweep vs Road team avoiding Sweep
Road Sweep vs Home team avoiding Sweep
as of April 29th...
Home Sweep
13 - 18
-$1,255
Road team avoiding Sweep
18 - 13
+$1,075
Road team to Sweep
9 - 7
+$175
Home team to avoid Sweep
7 - 9
-$255
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alkimyst
MVP
 Offline
Posts: 257
Did this guy eat Mark Mangino??!!
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« Reply #68 on: May 06, 2010, 07:49:06 PM » |
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This system is NOT working this year. LAA go down in flames once again tonight. I swear, God hates me. It's just that fucking simple.
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vegas legend
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« Reply #69 on: May 06, 2010, 07:51:59 PM » |
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I know!! I have gotten absolutely murdered on this system this year!! We'll if it makes you feel any better God hates me too!!  |
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alkimyst
MVP
Offline
Posts: 257
Did this guy eat Mark Mangino??!!
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« Reply #70 on: May 06, 2010, 08:02:56 PM » |
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Ha!! Thanks for the support.....  |
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slink
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« Reply #71 on: May 17, 2010, 12:54:24 PM » |
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Tracking things a bit differently this year... going to track the lines on the games as well. So I will keep running totals on $100 wager per play as follows:
Home Sweep vs Road team avoiding Sweep
Road Sweep vs Home team avoiding Sweep
as of May 9th...
Home Sweep
19 - 19
-$695
Road team avoiding Sweep
19 - 19
+$505
Road team to Sweep
14 - 11
+$340
Home team to avoid Sweep
11 - 14
-$485
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« Last Edit: May 17, 2010, 12:56:52 PM by slink »
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slink
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« Reply #72 on: May 20, 2010, 10:33:47 AM » |
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Tracking things a bit differently this year... going to track the lines on the games as well. So I will keep running totals on $100 wager per play as follows:
Home Sweep vs Road team avoiding Sweep
Road Sweep vs Home team avoiding Sweep
as of May 9th...
Home Sweep
24 - 22
-$530
Home Sweep (4th game)
1 - 0
+$100
Road team avoiding Sweep
22 - 24
+$320
Road team avoiding Sweep (4th game)
0 - 1
-$100
Road team to Sweep
21 - 14
+$980
Home team to avoid Sweep
14 - 21
-$1,180
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