Saturday Service Plays 7-30

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David Malinsky

4* SAN FRANCISCO over L.A. DODGERS

The Giants are simply much better than the Dodgers right now, and while the sting of that major * shift from last night’s 9th inning Run Line reversal will linger for us for a while, we can at least recoup a major part of that in this setting, as one of the hottest teams in the Major Leagues (the San Francisco run is at 18-5) takes on a floundering side that has gone 5-10 since the All Star break, including 1-7 on the road, and only maintaining that weak pace because the pitching staff threw a shutout in four of the wins. One of those shutouts came from Chad Billingsley against these Giants, but instead of a repeat performance today we see a major turnaround.

Because of the suspension to Clayton Kershaw, Billingsley is going on three days rest for the first time in his career, and that issue is magnified in going from a night start on Tuesday to this afternoon affair, making his rest even shorter. A San Francisco offense that leads the N.L. in runs in July was productive on Friday, and gets the third look at Billingsley in less than five weeks, which means some good swings at an arsenal that will not be at 100 percent.

Meanwhile Barry Zito suffered the loss against Billingsley in Los Angeles last week, but performed well, holding the game at 1-0 into the 8th inning. Zito has come out with a sharp 2.08 in three starts since the All Star break, with his command showing in a sharp ratio of 17 K’s vs. only six W’s, and for the full season it has been a 6-2/2.65 from this mound. The Dodgers do not bring much right-handed punch to the park without Manny Ramirez, scoring just 12 runs in six games vs. left-handed starters since the All Star break, and the momentum for each of these teams continues in the same direction this afternoon.
 

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BOB BALFE

Philadelphia Phillies -126

The Phillies were on a huge winning streak until last night, but they still are a much better team than Washington and should continue to gain ground on the Braves in the NL East. Look for the Phillies to jump out to an early lead behind Joe Blanton and never look back. Take the Phillies.

[goldengreek]

Power Play Wins

SD Padres

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DAVID BANKS


MLB
4:10 Reds -109
4:10 Giants -110
7:05 White Sox -145
7:10 Marniners -107
8:10 Rockies -139
8:35 Padres -107

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FreePicksUSA


SAN DIEGO -107

TAMPA BAY -113

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Potsys Picks MLB

SEATTLE -101
OAKLAND 1.5 (-158)
SAN FRANCISCO -107

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James jones
odds worth betting

triple play system

double wager
boston -166
__________________

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GOODFELLA

MLB ML - Saturday, Jul 31 2010 7:05PM
ML 924 CWS (-160) Bodog vs 923 OAK double-dime bet

Analysis: Danks and Braden MUST START
(2*) Double Star Play

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NICK "BookieKiller" PARSONS

10* Blue Jays -1.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is Toronto on the "run line":

Jake Westbrook gets the nod for the visitors; Westbrook is coming off a loss as he allowed three runs on four hits, with two homers in Monday's 3-2 loss to the Yanks; he walked as well.

In eight starts vs. the Jays, Westrbook is 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA; he's 6-7 on the year with an unremarkable 4.65 ERA.

With last night's crushing defeat, remember that the Indians are just 1-6 their last seven overall; 5-14 their last 19 on the road.

In the other dugout: Brett Cecil heads to the mound for the home side; Cecil is coming off a strong outing; he pitched five scoreless frames against the Tigers on Sunday before giving up two runs in the sixth; he received a no decision in the end; he walked just one and struck out six.

He hasn't lost in July yet; he's 1-0 and has allowed just seven runs over his last 26 1/3 innings with 14 K's.

He's 8-5 on the year with a 3.89 ERA.

He's already dominated the Indians this year as well; he allowed just one run on one hit over eight innings with 10 K's.

Not only is Toronto 6-1 its last seven, its also 5-1 its last six at the Rogers Centre; also a perfect 1-0 (+1 unit) as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range.

Bottom line: With trade rumors swirling around him, I expect Westbrook to be a bit distracted today; and that's bad news against this hot hitting Jays club; Westbrook is 0-2 with a 7.89 ERA in his last four outings on the road.

Toronto has scored 30 runs in its last four games, Cleveland has totaled 19 in the last nine.

A superior pitcher with the advantage of throwing at home, coupled with an extremely hot hitting team;

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Richie_Parker Saturday,

Minnesota Twins M: -105.0 2 UNITS

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Syndicate Sharps

Los Angeles Dodgers M: 101.0 3 UNITS

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Ji Jing

Texas Rangers M: 130.0 1 UNIT

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Dino Donato

Toronto Blue Jays R: -1.5 (105.0) 2 UNITS

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Hitbignow

Colorado Rockies M: -155.0 5 UNITS

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lpwsportsforecast Toronto Blue Jays  MLB

MoneylineKing   Cincinnati Reds  MLB

AFICIONADO   Houston Astros  MLB
AFICIONADO  K.C. Royals MLB


Sportsbook Advisor MLB Tampa -110

YouWinNOW MLB Pittsburgh Pirates

Platinum Plays Win MLB Oakland Athletics

MossZone MLB St Louis Cardinals (-195)
 
WinSportsNow MLB Toronto Blue Jays  (-190)

MonsterSportsPicks MLB Chicago White Sox(-150)

TheSuperNFL MLB Baltimore Orioles (210)  

AllFreePicks MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5
 
CTSportsPicks MLB Milwaukee Brewers (-105)

NFLGaming MLB Los Angeles Dodgers (-105)



Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

Last night's game between the Yankees and Rays was the only low-scoring contest this season in this rivalry. The OVER is 8-1 in 9 meetings between New York and Tampa Bay this year. They have combined to score 9 or more runs in 8 of the 9 meetings and they are averaging 12 RPG per contest. Neither Javier Vasquez nor Matt Garza has been spectacular this season. Vasquez has posted a 4.54 ERA this year while Garza sports a 4.06 ERA.

The Rays are 13-4 to the OVER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 11-3 to the OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season. The OVER is 8-1 in Yankees last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-3-1 in Vazquez's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-1 in Rays last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings overall. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.




Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -105
Bottom Line: The Twins are rolling, having won 6 straight, and I don't see a Seattle team that is just 15-37 on the road standing in their way tonight. I know Hernandez is going for Seattle, but the M's are just 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. The Twins have won 22 of Slowey's last 30 home starts, giving me more than enough confidence to take them at a great price tonight.
 


Tom Freese

Florida Marlins+107
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has won 6 of his last 7 starts. The Marlins are 10-4 their last 14 games and they are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. The Fish are 9-2 when the total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 7-3 vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego starter Kevin Correia has allowed 11 runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Padres are 2-5 their last 7 games vs. Al East teams. San Diego is 2-5 with Correia his last 7 home starts vs. a winning team. The Padres are 0-5 their last 5 home games vs. the Marlins. PLAY ON FLORIDA + (Nolasco vs. Correia)
 



Michael Cannon
 
That’s three straight free winners after the Angels get it done last night at home over the Rangers!
Take the Astros for the home win over the Brewers. I know there are a lot of distractions in the Houston clubhouse with veterans Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman having been traded, but I like the Astros to get it done today in front of the partisan crowd.
Wandy Rodriguez will start for the ‘Stros and he’s looking to win his third straight start.  The left-hander held the Reds to one hit and two walks in seven innings of the Astros’ 4-0 win on Sunday.The victory was the fifth in six starts for Rodriguez.The Brewers will counter with Dave Bush and I don’t trust him on the road.  The Astros went deep three times last night and Bush is notorious for surrendering the long ball.
Take the Astros as they grab the home win.

3♦ HOUSTON




Chuck O'Brien
 
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from Kansas City, as I’ll take the Royals on the run line (-1½ runs) against Baltimore.
I know Zack Greinke (6-10, 4.01 ERA) hasn’t come close to matching the season he had last year when he won the A.L. Cy Young award. I also know he’s coming off his worst performance of the season, as he surrendered six first-inning runs to the Twins on Tuesday and eventually was charged with eight runs in four innings of a disastrous 19-1 loss (the worst in K.C. franchise history).
Still, it’s not like the guy’s stuff has suddenly disappeared. In fact, in three starts prior to the debacle against the Twins – a team, by the way, that simply has his number – Greinke had surrendered just four earned runs in 21 innings (1.71 ERA). And prior to Tuesday, he had been on a 5-1 roll over seven starts, yielding eight total earned runs in six of those seven contests.
Most importantly, Zack Greinke is NOT Brad Bergesen, and what few fans the Royals have left should be grateful for that! Bergesen is 3-9 with a 6.95 ERA in 18 appearances (16 starts) for Baltimore this season. He’s lost seven straight decisions dating back to May 17, and over that stretch the Orioles are 1-11 in his 12 appearances (which includes 10 starts). In July alone, Bergeson is 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA in five starts, and on the road this season the right-hander is 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA.Then again, it’s not like Bergesen is solely to blame for his piss-poor numbers. After all, the O’s have averaged just 3.8 runs per game when he starts, including a pathetic 2.9 runs per game on the road. Those averages don’t figure to improve against Greinke, whom you know is out for vengeance after being embarrassed at home by Minnesota this week.  Honestly a complete-game shutout victory for Greinke wouldn’t surprise me in the least!

4♦ KANSAS CITY -1 1/2 runs (Listed Pitchers)




 
By Chris Jordan,

Coming right back to this American League rivalry, and once again I am siding with the Rays, no doubt about it. Again, I realize the Yankees have won 17 of 23, but their lead over the feisty Rays is just one game now. Thus, you better believe Tampa Bay is going to be prepared to move into a first-place tie with a win today, leaving the showdown for tomorrow.
I wouldn't be surprised to see MLB step in and add these two to tomorrow's nationally televised schedule, instead of the Dodgers-Giants.
I am much more a fan of Matt Garza than I am Javier Vazquez, who was shellacked for eight runs by these same Rays, in St. Petersburg, in his 2010 debut April 9.So even though he's 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four July starts, keep in mind he's faced the likes of Cleveland, the Angels, Seattle and Oakland - none of which are competing at a high level right now.My money is on Garza, who comes in after tossing a no-hitter against the Tigers on Monday. Now there are some analysts who traditionally play opposite a pitcher who is stepping to the hill after throwing a no-no.I don't think that's always a safe play, as there is motivation involved sometimes - like tonight.I know the Rays dropped all four of Garza’s starts against New York last season, but the kid posted a 2.08 ERA in those outings. Point blank - he pitched well enough to win.Tonight, the Rays are in a position to give him that elusive W.
Take the home team.

2♦ TAMPA BAY (List pitchers)





JAY MCNEIL

Milwaukee at Houston
Houston, we don't have a problem!
You've gotten rid of Roy Oswalt.
Lance Berkman is on his way out.
And yet you roll into this one on a three-game win streak and looking as if nothing's wrong.
I won't list the pitchers in this game, as I think the Astros have enough momentum to win on their own merits, however, it's important to note Wandy Rodriguez gives me hope after turning in his best start of the season.
The southpaw stifled the Reds to just one hit and two walks in seven innings of a 4-0 victory last Sunday, his fifth win in six starts.

Take the Astros today.

2♦ HOUSTON

(on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)



MATT RIVERS

Let’s side with the Rays tonight for the win over the Yankees.
Tampa looks to move into a tie atop the AL East with New York and I feel like the pitching matchup favors them here.
The Rays will start Matt Garza, who is coming off a no-hitter against Detroit in his last start on Monday.  This is the first time this season Garza will be facing the Yankees, but he pitched well against them in four starts last year, posting a 2.08 ERA.
The Yankees will counter with Javier Vazquez, who has hammered for eight runs in Tampa in his season debut.
Tampa has won seven straight and is feeling it right now.
Take the Rays for the home win.

4♦ TAMPA BAY on a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale




JEFF BENTON

For Saturday, we’ll head to San Diego and take the plus money with Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins against the Padres.

Nolasco has long been one of those pitchers whose numbers haven’t quite matched his “stuff.” The guy has an electrifying fastball that he uses to set up his filthy off-speed pitches, which is why he’s had incredible strikeout numbers the last three years – and when I say incredible, I mean 498 Ks in 527 2/3 innings, including 117 in 130 1/3 innings this year.
Nolasco’s big problem has been keeping the ball in the park. He’s already allowed 21 homers in his 130 1/3 innings this season, this after yielding 52 big flies the last two years combined. However, the kid seems to have figured it out in recently, as he’s been taken deep just twice in July while going 4-1 with a 2.94 ERA. And over his last seven trips to the mound (since June 23), Nolasco is 6-1 with a 3.40 ERA, pitching into the seventh inning in all six victories.Tonight, Nolasco gets to pitch in cavernous Petco Park, the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the big leagues – a place where Nolasco is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in three starts. In those three games, the right-hander has 23 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.
The final reason to love the Marlins here is this: If there’s one weak link in San Diego’s otherwise lights-out rotation this year, it’s Kevin Correia, who’s just 7-6 with a 5.09 ERA (1.49 WHIP). The only reason his record isn’t worse is he been the recipient of some uncharacteristic run support, as San Diego averages 5.6 runs per game behind the right-hander. I would be SHOCKED if the Padres – who have tallied three runs or fewer in three of their first four games on their current homestand – come close to matching that output against Nolasco in this one.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

3♦ FLORIDA MARLINS



SCOTT DELANEY

You have to like the Red Sox in this situation, as they've gotten themselves healthy, and they're seemingly poised to make a little bit of a run in the wild card race.Boston is 7-1/2 games behind New York in the American League East and 6-1/2 back of Tampa Bay for the wild card, so ending the month on a winning note is going to be important.And there's nothing more motivating than a blowout win.
With Detroit handing the ball to Max Scherzer, the blowout should come easy. the right-hander is 1-6 with a 5.53 ERA on the road this season, and has lost two of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs over 17-2/3 innings for an ERA of 3.56.
Normally, I might say that's a respectable ERA, but against Dice K, you need to come stronger.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has been sharp lately, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts. Plus, he is 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA in five career starts against Detroit.Lay the run line in this one, as Dice K gets it done, and the Red Sox beat up on Scherzer pretty good.

3♦ BOSTON (List both pitchers)
Based on 1♦ to 5♦

[goldengreek]

LARRY NESS

RUN LINE ROUT (PERFECT 3-0 in July)-Day
9* Boston Red Sox at 4:10 ET.

AL GAME OF THE YEAR
10* Chi White Sox at 7:05 ET.

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B&S PICKS
5 DIME LUCKY 7 PLAY OF THE DAY NY Yankees Rays over 8.5 -110
5 DIME BOLD SPORTS UPSET PLAY Chicago Cubs +140
5 DIME REGULAR PLAY Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +170
5 DIME BOLD SPORTS UPSET PLAY Baltimore +205

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SPORTS WAGERS ( RANDALL THE HANDAL )

Detroit +1.74 over BOSTON Pinnacle

It didn’t seem possible that the banged up Tigers could go into Boston yesterday and beat Jon Lester with Armando Galarraga going but they did and today they get a much more favorable matchup. Max Scherzer is developing into a true ace. This guy has wicked stuff and he just keeps getting better. He was sent down to the minors back in early May to work on his delivery and in his first start back he fanned a cool 14 and has barely slowed down since. In that no-hitter game against Matt Garza last week, Scherzer, too, had a no-no going into the sixth. In 32 July innings, Scherzer has allowed 20 hits for a BAA of .175 to go along with an ERA of 2.48. This guy can pitch, period. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off back-to-back strong games but they came in Seattle and Oakland. Fact is, Dice K is not to be trusted laying big juice. He’s a serious roll of the dice because he is capable of walking way too many people. Every time you think Dice has turned the corner he throws a complete disaster. We're three years into this experiment and his skills keep getting worse. Does this look like an ace to you? Big overlay. Play: Detroit +1.74 (Risking 2 units).



Florida +1.07 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle

This one is all about wagering on Ricky Nolasco against Kevin Correia. Nolasco has been one of the best pitchers in the game in July and that is right in line with his incredibly terrific second half a year ago. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors and as a result we get an undervalued pitcher here. Fact is, he’s done much better in his five second-half starts. Combine that with impeccable control and it’s clear why his xERA is so low. In 33 July innings, Nolasco has fanned 40 batters while walking just eight. He has a .216 BAA over that span and current Padre hitters have had very little success against him. The Marlins are really playing good ball and took the opener last night in a matchup that was far less favorable than this one. Kevin Correia is usually good for giving up four or five a game. Pitching at least half his games at Petco, Correia has a BAA of .272 and an ERA of 4.52. Those are Great American Ballpark numbers and frankly, there’s nothing to like about Correia as a favorite over Nolasco. Play: Florida +1.07 (Risking 2 units).



HOUSTON –1½ +1.86 over Milwaukee Pinnacle

You could definitely lay the –1.11 and feel very confident but we’ll go for the gold and lay the runs. You see, everything about Wandy Rodriguez is screaming to “buy” now. He’s been trending in the right direction for weeks and has really hit his stride with five outstanding starts in his last six. Among those were a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Reds, a six-inning, zero earned runs against San Fran and a seven-inning, seven-hit, one run gem against these same Brewers in Milwaukee. Now the scene switches to Houston, where Rodriguez has always been better. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 15 of Dave Bush’s last 22 starts and it’s also worth mentioning that Houston is on a three-game winning streak while the Crew have dropped three straight. Dave Bush is hit and miss. He will never dominate in the fashion that Rodriguez is capable of but will often keep his team in the game. However, that’s a roll of the dice every time and even in his win last week in against the Nats, he still gave up three jacks. It might appear that the Astros are cleaning house when in fact they’re not. This is a team with a lot of young talent, that can’t wait to get back to the park, as they’re all starting to thrive. Play: Houston –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).



Pittsburgh +1.82 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle

Jeff Suppan a –1.94 favorite is about as ridiculous as it gets. Here’s a guy that has nothing left. He’s batting practice out there. Over his last three starts covering 16 innings, Suppan has struck out two batters and they were both pitchers. In those 16 July innings, he’s also allowed four bombs, walked seven and allowed 22 hits. In 67 IP this season he’s allowed 99 hits for a BAA of .359 to go along with an alarming 1.88 WHIP. Jeff Suppan is the worst starter in the majors and now he’s a 2-1 favorite? Are you kidding? Also, Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager in baseball history and it’s not close. He actually believes in his own screwed up brain that batting the pitcher eighth is working. It’s not only that though. He makes so many bad moves it’s incredible but they go virtually unnoticed by most because he’s been around so long and has had success. The only reason he’s had success is because he has surrounded himself with great assistants and bench coaches and they do everything form him but it’s perceived that LaRussa is doing it. Personally, I have no confidence when I wager on the Cards because LaRussa makes two stupid moves (or more) every game and costs his team more wins than any manager in the business. The Pirates do not have a strong starter on its whole staff so there is no point getting into Daniel McCutchen’s numbers. He could give up five or more without breaking a sweat. Thing is, McCutchen is not the one laying close to 2-1 and the Pirates are playing decent ball these days. They have a great chance to score a bunch and when a stiff like Suppan is favored by this much, the pooch is the play with no questions asked because Suppan’s chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Pittsburgh +1.84 (Risking 2 units).

[goldengreek]

Anthony Redd:

75 DIME Dog Play   

Phillies Run Line

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MR A

Boston Red Sox -175

Chicago White Sox 155

[goldengreek]

ATS LOCK CLUB
FOX GAME OF THE YEAR

8 UNIT LA Dodgers

[goldengreek]

GINA

Saturday, July 31, 2010 8:35 p.m. est.

Florida Marlins (52-51) at San Diego Padres (60-41)
(R) Ricky Nolasco (11-7) vs. (R) Kevin Correia (7-6)


The Florida Marlins have lost five of six home games to the Padres this season, but are 6-1 in their last seven games versus the Padres in San Diego, including Friday’s 4-2 victory. Look for the Marlins with Ricky Nolasco on the hill to continue whipping the Padres in their house and seize their sixth straight victory over the Padres at Petco Park. The Marlins are 6-1 in Nolasco’s last 7 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 on the road.

Florida’s right-hander Ricky Nolasco (11-7, 4.35 ERA), is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in his last three starts. Nolasco is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in six career outings, including five starts against the Padres.

San Diego’s right-hander Kevin Correia (7-6, 5.09 ERA), is 2-0 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. Correia is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA in 12 career appearances, including five starts against the Marlins.

Florida Marlins -105

[goldengreek]

SR COMPUTER

Toronto Blue Jays -200
Minnesota Twins -110
St. Louis Cardinals -200

[goldengreek]

Rich green

3* col - 145

[goldengreek]

THE DUKE SPORTS

Cincinnati (-105) for 2 Units

The Reds have won their last 4 in game 2 of a series and won 9 of their last 12 on Saturday; today, we'll look for Bronson Arroyo to come through with a solid performance; after all, he has held opponents to a .190 average in the month of July with a respectable 3.38 ERA. And his ERA in daytime play is a decent 3.37. On the other hand, Jair Jurrjens has experienced trouble in daytime action (7.27 ERA) and the road has not been kind to him with a 7.88 ERA. Furthermore, the Great American Ball Park has been his nemesis with a 9.95 ERA there in 2 starts. And throw in the fact that the Braves are just 1-4 with him on the mound on Saturdays, we'll look for the Reds to deliver here.