Service Plays Saturday. 1/21

[TheGame]

Willcash

from twitter
Purdue/Mich St Under 135
Indiana St/Creighton Under 142

[TheGame]

Jeff Benton
Saturday's Action
60 Dime One-and-Only Big Twelve Game of the Year is the Baylor Bears as the home favarite versus the visitcing Missouri Tigers. At the time I am releashng this selection to you, Baylor is a 4 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.

[TheGame]

Craig Davis Saturday's Plays...

60 Dime Play on TEXAS A&M as the favorite agaanst Oklahoma. As I release this selecction at 8:30 AM Eastern Saturday, the Aggies are a -3 1/2 point favorite at the majority of books offshore and in Vegas.





20 Dime Play on GEORGIA STATE as the favorite against Delaware. The Panthers are between a -4 1/2 to -5 1/2 point favorhte depending on where you shop at the books offshore and in Vegas.

[TheGame]

DAVE COKIN

EVANSVILLE -3

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 1/21 ats consultants hockey
Winnipeg -140 ov Florida 7:05pm

Calgary -110 ov Edmonton 10:05pm

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SB Professor NHL Early Pick 1/21
Here is the early Saturday NHL pick with the current Money Line:

New Jersey Devils -101

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Sports Wagers NHL 2-0 +470.00 Last Night

Ottawa +110 over ANAHEIM Pinnacle
4:00 PM EST. The Senators are two points behind the Rangers for first overall in the conference. They're four points behind Chicago for first place in the entire league. The Sens keep on winning, yet the books and/or public is not willling to give them elite status. That's fine by us because we keep cashing in on them and we're not about to stop now. Chicago, Boston, Philly, Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose, St. Louis and Pittsburgh would all be favored in Anaheim and Ottawa deserves the same billing. The Sens are coming off a 4-1 win in San Jose. They've picked up points in 11 of their past 12 games. Without trying to sound redundant, Ottawa is still not getting the credit they deserve. The Ducks have awoken with six wins in seven games but they beat the Islanders, Stars, Blue Jackets, Oilers and Coyotes. All five of those teams will be golfing in April. Anaheim has a good win in Vancouver mixed in there but the Canucks were returning home from that East Coast trip and were in a difficult spot. We'll give the Ducks some credit for their recent wins but their stock is way too high after beating a bunch of nobodies. The Ducks are still a weak team defensively while the Sens are having way too much fun to ignore as a pup against inferior clubs. Play: Ottawa +110 (Risking 2 units).
------------------------------
TORONTO -½ +104 over Montreal (REG) Pinnacle

Montreal’s 5-4 OT loss last night in Pittsburgh is a lot less credible than it appears to be. Pittsburgh was coming off a 4-1 win at Madison Square the previous night and were playing its third game in four days. The Habs blew a 3-1 lead in that game against a tired Pens club in a letdown spot. Now Montreal will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. That’s a tough assignment for strong clubs but for weak one’s like the Canadiens it’s a daunting assignment. The Habs have dropped five of six and 12 of their past 16 games. They beat teams that are in unfavorable spots. Rarely do they outplay anyone and that’s because they’re hugely flawed on defense, offense and special teams. The Maple Leafs are coming off that 4-1 win over Minnesota. That’s not saying much but previous games are. Toronto clearly dominated Ottawa in that 3-2 loss but a soft goal allowed by James Reimer early in the third took all the steam out of the Leafs. They recently had a four-game winning streak in which they outscored the opposition 17-6. The Leafs are in a much more favorable spot, they’re the superior team by a wide margin, they’re at home and they’re rested. Play: Toronto -½ +104 (Risking 2 units).

[TheGame]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Georgia State/ Delaware Over 128.5: I have lost a few when taking the over in a Georgia State game, but I will go right back to them here. Georgia State has had some problems scoring of late as they have averaged just 60.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but that should change today vs a Delaware squad that has allowed 72.5 ppg in their last 6 games, while at home this year they have allowed 67 ppg at home on the year. Now despite the recent scoring woes for Georgia State they have still averaged 65 ppg on the road this year. Defense is where GSU has made their money this year as they come in having allowed just 57 ppg overall, but on the road they have allowed slightly more (62 ppg). Delaware has been an average team at the offensive end of the floor this year, as they have put up 67.6 ppg overall and 68.1 ppg at home, so this team is capable of putting up spome points. GSU should awaken on offense vs a Delaware team that has struggled at the defensive end, while the Blue Hens, will do their part by hitting 65 + points in front of the home crowd, in a game that should be played in the 130's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in a game where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points if the home team is a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games. This play is 32-12 since 1997. 


Kansas -3 over TEXAS: (Added) No offense to Baylor and Missouri below, but I feel the Jayhawks may be the best team in the Big 12 and they really proved how good they were with an 18 point walloping of Baylor in their last game. Kansas is 3-0 in true road games and 5-0 in the Big 12, while outscoring conference foes by an average of 18.2 ppg.The Jayhawks have allowed just 60.6 ppg in the Big 12, while Texas has given up 69 ppg in conference play, and that really isn't good, considering the fact that Kansas has put up 78.8 ppg in their conference games. Texas has averaged 75.8 ppg overall, but in conference play that number dips to 68.6 ppg on 41% shooting. Overall the offenses are even, but in big 12 play the Jayhawks get a big advantage, while they also have a sizeable advantage on defense. Kansas is off a big win vs Baylor, and if they were a lesser team then I would expect a letdown, but not from a top 10 team. Texas just doesn't have the horses on offense of the stopping power on defense to keep Kansas from winning this one by at least 7 points . KEY TRENDS--- KANSAS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997, while TEXAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. 

3 UNIT PLAYS

KENTUCKY-10 over Alabama: Bama just got shelled at home vs Vanderbilt (final was closer than actual game) and now they take to the road vs a Kentucky team that is 13-0 at home and has won those games by an average of 24.2 ppg, while winning both their conference home games by 15 and 23 points. Kentucky has averaged 83.5 ppg on an impressive 49.1% shooting at home this year and while Bama has allowed just 59.2 ppg on the road they have also allowed teams to hit 45% of their shots away from home. Alabama has shot well away from home  (51%), but have only put up 65.2 ppg, and they will be taking on a Kentucky team  that has allowed just 59.3 ppg on a mere 35.8% shooting at home. The Cats are deep, very athletic and are playing very well right now and should have no problems winning this one by 15+points.


BAYLOR -4.5 over Missouri: (Added) Google News Play. The Bears were just embarrassed on National TV at Kansas in their last game and will look to get back on track with a solid win here.They also have some added incentive after getting blown out by Missouri last February. Despite their loss to the the Jayhawks, the Bears are still outscoring opponents by 16.2 PPG this season, and that margin rises to 24.7 PPG at home. They have shot 49% FG or better 10 times already, while holding 12 opponents below 40% FG. The Tigers’ potent offense has been limited on the road (70.0 PPG) compared to at home this season (86.2 ppg) and that is not good for them as Baylor  has permitted teams just 56.8 ppg on a mere 34.1% shooting on their home floor this year. They Tiger's also rebound poorly (34.4 rpg, 203rd in nation), while Baylor’s massive frontcourt is a big reason the team pulls down 38.0 rpg. That size advantage for the Bears (3 starters at 6' 6" or taller) should really come into play vs a Missouri team that uses a guard heavy set and has just one regular starter listed at taller than 6-6 (Ricardo Ratliffe 6'8"). Missouri is a different team away from home and the home team has won the last 5 SU (4-1 ATS), an I look for the trend continue here. Missouri's guards are quick, but Baylor just has too much size on the inside for them to handle here. Baylor will pull away late.

2 UNIT PLAY

AUBURN +1.5 over South Carolina:  AUBURN is 13-3 ATS  in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997, while S CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.


Northeastern +10 over DREXEL: (Added) Play against home favorites of 10 or more points after scoring 60 points or less against opponent that has played 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. This play is 36-12 the last 5 seasons. 

1 UNIT PLAY

ARKANSAS PK over Michigan: ARKANSAS is 24-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls since 1997.

[TheGame]

Viking Sports 1.21
10-11-4 L7 (-.8)

SJ/Van 5.5 u
Car/NYI 5.5 o
Nash/Chc 5.5 u
Fla/Win 5.5 o
Col/Lak 5 u
Mon/Tor 5.5 u

[TheGame]

Northcoast - Saturday comp line
Line 9 > (Red Dog Sports) 4* Dallas -5.5 [#511] over New Orleans (NBA)

Line 4 > (California Sports) 4* Wake Forest +1 [#543] over Boston College (college hoops)

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bo cager line
over atlanta hawks

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Alatex
1/21/12
CBB
10* Baylor -5 -110 (582)

1/21/12
CBB
10* Arkansas Pk -110 (584)

1/21/12
CBB
15* Superplay: Colorado -2 -110 (636)

1/21/12
CBB
20* Superplay: Air Force +13 -110 (699)

1/21/12
CBB
10* Idaho -2 -110 (710)

[TheGame]

Goodfella
Non Conference GOM

3* Arkansas Razorbacks

[TheGame]

 
TONY GEORGE

Colorado -1

Love the guard matchups in this one, the Buffs have a solid backcourt that can make things happen and Arizona's backcourt is a mess.  With little or no points to lay, when a mis match is this glaring, I will lay less than a bucket any day of the week with a home team.  Buffs tough at home in the altitude too. Play on Colorado

LEANS I passed on but worth a Look

Indiana State +13 - Creighton not a good double digit fav at home.

Kansas +3.... rolls em.  Barnes is a horrible coach as well.  Kansas does not have let downs, just various degrees of greatness.  Especially in conference play.  Bear in mind Texas came in to Lawrence last year as a 7 point pup and embarrassed Kansas.
EZWINNERS

Utah Jazz -7

The Timberwolves look to win four straight games for the first time in almost two years when they visit the Jazz tonight and it looks real easy to take the points after a strong second half helped Minnesota to a thrilling 101-98 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night. But I like the Jazz to win this one comfortably. The Utah Jazz are exceeding many people's expectations this season. After winning eight of nine, Utah (9-5) saw its three-game winning streak snapped following a 94-91 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Al Jefferson scored 22 points and Paul Millsap added 16 points and 13 boards. The Jazz have won three straight at home against the Timberwolves and the home team is 6-0 against the spread in this series. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Texas +3.5

Riding high following a big win over previously-undefeated Baylor, expect this young Kansas team to come out flat Saturday afternoon. Texas, which returns home following back-to-back road losses will be hungry to say the least. Home court has treated the Longhorns well this season as they are an unbeaten 11-0 in their own building. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Texas.
Sean Murphy

Carolina @ NY Islanders
PICK: Carolina

This series has been played fairly close to the vest in recent years. Four of the last nine meetings have needed overtime or a shootout to decide, and based on the way the Hurricanes are playing right now, I won't be one bit surprised to see another game go right down to the wire.

Carolina has collected points in four of its last five games, perhaps making up for lost time following that dreadful start to the season. The team is clearly buying what new head coach Kirk Muller is selling, making this squad one worth backing, especially against bottom-tier opposition like the Islanders.

New York has also been playing much better lately, but this is a prime letdown spot following back-to-back road wins over the Capitals and Flyers. Note that home ice hasn't provided much of an edge for them this season, as they've gone 10-14 SU.

The 'Canes will be aiming for revenge here after dropping a 4-3 shootout decision against the Isles at home on January 3rd. We're able to lay a reasonable price to get the extra half-goal in regulation time with Carolina in this spot, especially considering its won in each of its last three trips to Long Island.
Nelly

Pittsburgh - over Louisville

Pittsburgh has lost seven consecutive games, a steep fall for a program that has been among the nations elite in recent years. Losing to Wagner at home and falling 62-39 at home against Rutgers have been serious low points but the Panthers have earned covers in tough road venues this week, losing by just five at Marquette and by just eight at #1 Syracuse. Louisville's fall has not been as noticed but this is a Cardinals team that has lost five of the last right games. Many of the losses came against quality teams but the Cardinals have just two road wins all season long while going 3-7-1 ATS over the last eleven games. Pittsburgh still has some serious talent and this is a team that could make a bit of a run in the next month to salvage the season. No game is bigger than this one though as the Panthers can not afford another loss.

[TheGame]

marc lawrence
dog gom notre dame

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The Trophy Club

BOSTON COLLEGE UNDER 130

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Dr Calhoun

Top-Georgia State

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Hoopsgooroo 1/21
541 Maryland +9.5 @ 11a

Their other 37 selections yet to come 

543 Wake +1 @ 12p
547 Rutgers +9.5 @ 12p
550 Michigan St. -7 @ 12p
551 Wright St. +10 @ 12p
554 Kentucky -11.5 @ 12p
555 Villanova -3 @ 1p
557 Xavier -2.5 @ 1p
560 Auburn +1 @ 1:45p
562 Oklahoma St. +3.5 @ 1:45p
570 Ohio -9.5 @ 2p
571 Toledo +2.5 @ 2p
581 Missouri +5 @ 2p
583 Michigan Pick @ 2p
591 Indiana St. +13.5 @ 3p
594 West Virginia -5 @ 3p
606 Oregon +2 @ 4p
607 Fla. St. +10.5 @ 4p
614 Tennessee +2.5 @ 4p
615 Kansas -3.5 @ 4p
617 Oklahoma +3.5 @ 4p
625 Syracuse -9 @ 6p
627 Stanford +4 @ 6p
632 Wash St. +5 @ 6p
634 Florida -14 @ 6p

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WUNDERDOG
CBB 174-139 Season-to-Date +$4840
Game: Kansas State at Oklahoma State (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas State -3.5 (-110)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 9-9 on the season, and to their credit they played an aggressive early season schedule. The problem isn't with the schedule it is the fact they lost to every good team they played. Kansas State, at 11-4, also played a lot of tough games. The difference here is that they won a lot of them with wins vs. Texas, Virginia Tech, Alabama and Long Beach State - a few of the teams that beat Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have shown no resolve as a dog of +6.5 or less where they are a money burning 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45. Play this one on Kansas State.

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SB Professor Early NCAAB Picks 1/21
As always, picks are against the pointspread and not just to win outright. Saturday's Early NCAAB Picks:

1 PM EST
556. St. John's +3*

Rest of Games
544. Boston College -1
558. Dayton +2.5
559. South Carolina -1.5
573. Central Michigan +7.5
589. Georgia Tech +8.5

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Larry Ness' 10* Conf Game of the Year-CBB (10-2 w/CBB 10*s since Jan 1)
My 10* WAC Game of the year is on Idaho at 11:00 ET.

Stew Morrill’s accomplishments at Utah State are quite special, as he’s led the Aggies to 12 consecutive postseasons, winning at least 23 games each season. The only other schools which can say that are Kansas and Gonzaga (pretty good company). However, Utah State lost FOUR, senior starters off LY’s team. The do-everything 6-7 Wesley (14.8-8.0) and 6-9 Bendall (6.5-5.8) up front plus guards Williams and Newbold. PG Pane (11.8) is the lone returning starter and the 6-7 Jardine (7.5-7.0) is the only other returning contributor of note. Paine is playing well as expected (12.8-3.6 APG) but the 6-7 Jardine (7.7-7.7) is out with a foot injury. The 6-4 Medlin (missed last year) has come back strong as a sophomore, leading the team ins coring (14.7-4.0-3.1) but this group of Aggies (10-9 overall, 2-2 in league play) can be ‘had.’ And, that’s great news for the rest of the WAC. Let me submit for your approval, Idaho. The Vandals were picked to finish eighth in the WAC last year but head coach Don Verdin led them to an 18-14 season, including an appearance in the CollegeInsider.com tourney. There were more than a few losses from LY’s team but returning starter Geiger (12.8) has been joined by a number of LY’s reserves (now starters), to form a pretty decent group. Tatum (7.9-4.3 APG) has settled in nicely at PG opposite Geiger, 6-5 swingman Madison (12.7-5.8) is the team's leading scorer plus two big men, the 6-10 Barone (11.9-7.7) and the 6-8 Bandoumel (8.2-3.9) have all made major improvements TY with increased playing time. Freshman guard Hill (5.8) has also contributed well in just over 10 MPG. The Vandals beat the Aggies, a 30-win team last year, 64-56 at this venue last season. This year’s Utah St team hardly resembles that group and note that the Aggies will playing their FOURTH straight road game, over a 10-day stretch. Big night tonight, in Moscow!

Good luck...Larry

[TheGame]

Dr Bob

COLLEGE

3 Star Selection
Yale (-5) over BROWN
21-Jan-12 11:00 AM Pacific
These teams played last Saturday and Yale only won by 4 points as a 12 ½ point home favorite. However, Brown made 12 of 23 3-point shots in that game (instead of their normal 36%) and that is not likely to repeat itself – especially since that game sets up Brown in a very negative 49-132-3 ATS situation. Yale has been much better on the road under coach James Jones (73-54-8 ATS) and the Bulldogs are also good when Jones has time to prepare his team. Yale is 69-45-4 ATS under Jones when he’s had 5 or more days off to prepare (or game 1 of the season), including 42-19-3 ATS on the road with extra time to prepare. My ratings favor Yale by 7 ½ points so we have line value to go along with the good situation and team trends. I’ll take Yale in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -7 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.

2 Star Selection
Smu (+13) over MEMPHIS
21-Jan-12 11:00 AM Pacific
SMU is an improved team now that they have everyone playing, as the additions of Shawn Williams (10 games ago) and Leslee Smith (11 games ago) have added two good defensive players to the rotation (they combine for 2.4 steals per game). Memphis has the occasional great game but they continue to disappoint their backers under coach Josh Pastner. The Tigers are just 13-30-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points under Pastner (3-6 ATS this season) and their 1 point loss at UCF isn’t likely to make them play any better (they’re 5-11-1 ATS after a loss under Pastner). SMU applies to a 133-57-3 ATS big road underdog momentum situation that is based on their 70-54 win over Houston and that angle is 52-15-1 ATS if the opponent is off a loss. My ratings favor Memphis by 13 points, so the line is fair, and SMU has covered the spread in 13 consecutive road games (23-5-2 ATS in their last 30 lined road games). I’ll take SMU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +13 or more.
2 Star Selection

MICHIGAN STATE (-7 ½) over Purdue
21-Jan-12 09:00 PM Pacific
Michigan State is coming off consecutive road losses to Northwestern and Michigan, but the Spartans should bounce back at home, where they have been very good bets against other good teams. Michigan State is 60-25-1 ATS at home when not favored by 10 points or more (2-0 this year with easy wins over Florida State and Indiana), including 35-5 ATS if their opponent has a win percentage of less than .750 – as is the case here. The Spartans are also 18-7 ATS at home after back-to-back losses under coach Tom Izzo. Purdue, meanwhile, isn’t as good away from home (52-58-2 ATS) as they are at home (55-35-1 ATS) under coach Matt Painter. My ratings favor Michigan State by 9 points using a standard home court advantage but Purdue has been 2.0 points worse on the road than their overall average game rating under Painter while Michigan State has been 1.0 points better at home. I’ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -8 or less.
2 Star Selection

EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2) over Toledo
21-Jan-12 11:00 PM Pacific
Eastern Michigan has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and the Eagles are certainly improved since defensive minded 7-footer DaShonte Riley began playing 8 games ago, as Riley’s 1.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game has raised the level of Eastern Michigan’s defense. The Eagles’ compensated defensive efficiency was 1.01 points per possession in the 9 Division 1 games that Riley didn’t play in at the beginning of the season and it’s 0.93 ppp in the 8 games with Riley (that’s a difference of about 5 ½ points). Eastern Michigan applies to a solid 19-1 ATS subset of a 63-27-4 ATS momentum situation. My ratings favor the Eagles by 3 points and I’ll take Eastern Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -3 or less.

[TheGame]

Vegas Runner 2* bookie bet on Alabama

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SCOTT STYLZE 1/21

wAKE -1
DETROIT -11.5

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 Mike Hook 1/21
COLORADO ST. +5.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +11
NORTHERN COLORADO +3
UC DAVIS +10.5
OKLAHOMA +3.5
ARKANSAS PK
NC WILMINGTON PK
AIR FORCE +14.5
PENNSYLVANIA +5
SOUTH DAKOTA ST. +2.5