Super Bowl Betting Info

[TheGame]

Line Moves - SBXLVI Props
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The following are the opening lines with betting movement and current numbers on the LVH Super Book Super Bowl propositions. A lot of the movement looks in line with how the majority of the public is betting the game, which is siding with the Giants which means less Tom Brady and more Eli Manning.

The largest move through the first few days has been the OVER-UNDER price on what jersey number will score the first touchdown. The number opened up at 80.5 UNDER -120 and has been bet to OVER -130, a .50 cent move. The thinking behind it all is that the first score will most likely be a touchdown pass. You get the entire main receiving corps of the Giants and Patriots with the exception of Victor Cruz and Travis Beckum. It appears to fall in line with some value when comparing another similar prop that hasn't moved.

If looking to bet whether the first touchdown of the game will be a pass to anyone, the line hasn't moved from the opener at -200 with a take back on 'any other TD' being +175.

Here are all of the propositions that have seen moves at the LVH.

MOST PENALTY YARDS
**(Declined penalties do not count)
GIANTS -110 (Bet up to -135)
PATRIOTS -110

TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 4.0 -110 (Bet up to 4 OVER -120)
UNDER 4.0 -110

TOTAL NUMBER OF KICKOFF RETURNS BY: BOTH TEAMS
**(Returns only--Excludes Touchbacks, Out of Bounds & Fair Catches)
OVER 6.5 +145 (Bet up to 6.5 OVER +175/-200)
UNDER 6.5 -165

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: ELI MANNING (NYG)
OVER 308.5 -110 (Bet up to 310.5 -110)
UNDER 308.5 -110

WHAT WILL ELI MANNING (NYG) THROW FIRST:
TD PASS -240 (Bet down to -230/+195)
INTERCEPTION +200

WILL THE GIANTS SCORE IN ALL 4 QUARTERS?
**(Overtime does not count)
YES +250 (Bet down to +225/-265)
NO -300

WILL THE GIANTS CONVERT A 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT?
**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +175 (Bet down to +165/-185)
NO -200

TOTAL SOLO & ASSISTED TACKLES BY: ANTREL ROLLE (NYG)
**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 6.0 -110 (Bet up to 6 OVER -145)
UNDER 6.0 -110

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: TOM BRADY (NE)
OVER 319.5 -110 (Bet down to 316.5 -110)
UNDER 319.5 -110

TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY: DANNY WOODHEAD (NE)
**(If no Reception--Under is the winner)
OVER 1.5 +120 (Bet up +1.5 +135)
UNDER 1.5 -140

WILL CHAD OCHOCINCO (NE) HAVE AT LEAST 1 RECEPTION?
YES +130 (Bet down to +115)
NO -150

TOTAL FIRST DOWNS BY: PATRIOTS
OVER 24.0 EVEN (Bet up to 24,5 -110)
UNDER 24.0 -120

WILL THE PATRIOTS CONVERT A 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT?
**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +130 (Bet down to +120)
NO -150

TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: PATRIOTS
OVER 102.5 -110 (Bet down to 101.5 OVER -110)
UNDER 102.5 -110

TOTAL SOLO & ASSISTED TACKLES BY: ROB NINKOVICH (NE)
**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 5.5 EVEN (Bet down to 5.5 OVER +110)
UNDER 5.5 -120

MOST COMPLETIONS
ELI MANNING (NYG) +1.5 +105 (Bet down to +1.5 EVEN)
TOM BRADY (NE) -1.5 -125

MOST TOUCHDOWN PASSES
ELI MANNING (NYG) +0.5 -130 (Bet up to -0.5 -145)
TOM BRADY (NE) -0.5 +110

MOST GROSS PASSING YARDS
ELI MANNING (NYG) +11.5 -110 (Bet down to +10.5 -110)
TOM BRADY (NE) -11.5 -110

WHO WILL THROW AN INTERCEPTION FIRST
ELI MANNING (NYG) -160 (Bet down to -140)
TOM BRADY (NE) +140

MOST RECEIVING YARDS
VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -6.5 +105 (Bet down to -6.5 -110)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) +6.5 -125

MOST RECEIVING YARDS
TRAVIS BECKUM (NYG) +30.5 -110 (Bet down to +27.5 -110)
DEION BRANCH (NE) -30.5 -110

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
HAKEEM NICKS (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)
AARON HERNANDEZ (NE) +105

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
MARIO MANNINGHAM (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)
DEION BRANCH (NE) +105

PLAYER TO GET A RECEPTION FIRST
VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -130 (Bet up to -145)
ROB GRONKOWSKI (NE) +110

MOST POINTS
GIANTS--FIRST HALF POINTS +15.5 -110 (Bet up to +15.5 -125)
PATRIOTS--FULL GAME POINTS -15.5 -110

MOST POINTS
GIANTS--FULL GAME POINTS -12.5 -110 (Bet down to -12.5 +105)
PATRIOTS--FIRST HALF POINTS +12.5 -110

JERSEY NUMBER OF PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST TOUCHDOWN IN SUPER BOWL XLVI
OVER 80.5 EVEN (Bet up to 80.5 OVER -130) .50 cent move is pretty large
UNDER 80.5 -120
**(If No Touchdown--All bets are refunded)

[TheGame]

Super Bowl Quarterbacks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

For the fifth straight year, the Super Bowl will showcase two of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off for the title. Both the Giants and Patriots rely on solid play from their signal-caller to be successful, as that will no doubt be the case again on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. We'll take a look at these Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and see which one will pick up another ring.

Tom Brady is playing in his fifth "Super Sunday" game for the Patriots, while compiling a 3-1 record through his first four Super Bowl appearances. The last time Brady played in this game came four years ago against the Giants, a 17-14 setback, sending New England to its first and only loss of the season. The Patriots failed to cash as 12½-point favorites, the third time New England lost against the spread as 'chalk' in the Super Bowl (Panthers and Eagles).
   
The Giants' defense held New England's offense to 274 yards in the Super Bowl XLII win, while limiting Brady to just one touchdown pass. In 19 games that season, Brady put together multiple-touchdown efforts 16 times, but his only score against the Giants came in the final three minutes of regulation to Randy Moss. On the flip side, New York received several big plays on the game-winning drive from the brother of Brady's arch-rival.

Eli Manning orchestrated the most improbable play in Super Bowl history with his escape from a sack, followed by a 32-yard completion to David Tyree. That magical throw led to the winning connection to Plaxico Burress in the final minute of play, capping off a Super Bowl title as a Wild Card team. The second time around will be a challenge, but Manning can become the 11th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowl championships.

Manning attempted a season-high 58 passes in the NFC Championship triumph at San Francisco two weeks ago, 20-17 as short road underdogs. The Giants' quarterback threw two touchdown passes in the win, the fourth straight game that Manning has put together multiple scores (11 TD's in this stretch). The most recent time Manning faced the Patriots in November, he led them on another comeback in the last minute, but this time around it came in Brady's backyard.

The Giants and Patriots played a scoreless first half in Week 9 at Gillette Stadium, but the two teams erupted for a combined 44 points in the second half. The lead changed hands three times in the final three minutes, as the Giants came out on top, 24-20 as nine-point 'dogs. Manning threw for 250 yards, while hitting Jake Ballard for a one-yard strike with 15 seconds left in the game to give New York a 6-2 start to the season. Brady racked up 342 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw a pair of interceptions in the loss.

Several of VegasInsider.com's top handicappers weighed in on which quarterback they depend on heading into Sunday. Micah Roberts said, "I think both Manning and Brady will have good days, but I'd lean to Brady having less errors. Even though we want to focus more on current form with Manning, it's hard to not forget the Eli that got mired in a four-game losing streak."

Marc Lawrence believes that both these former Super Bowl MVP's have their work cut out for them, "Statistically I like Manning's chances against the league 31st-ranked secondary, although Brady enters off a season-worst effort and is more likely to return to the norm rather than further regress."

Pat Hawkins is buying into Big Blue's chances on Sunday, "My gut feeling tells me that Eli should have the advantage in this matchup, going against a statistically weak Patriots defense. He should continue to ride the hot hand and hit his wide receiver targets all day. I’m sure the Patriots' coaching staff will have some surprise for Manning, knowing that giving him more than 2-3 seconds to find a receiver will not work."

From a props perspective, Manning is listed at 310½ passing yards, while Brady's passing yards is set at 316½, according to the LV Hotel & Casino Sportsbook. Brady surpassed the 317-yard mark 11 times, including four of the last six games. Manning eclipsed the 311-yard barrier in 10 games, while throwing for at least 316 yards in the playoff wins over the Packers and 49ers.

In the touchdown department for props, Brady's number is set at 1½, as you would need to bet $3.30 to win $1.00 on the 'over.' On the flip side, money can be made on the 'under' of this bet with a $1.00 risk to win $2.70. For Manning, the odds are steep on the 'over' bet of 1½ touchdown passes (Bet $2.10 to win $1.00), while an 'under' play wins $1.80 on a $1.00 wager.

[TheGame]

Accuscore Super Bowl Props: Running Backs -- Jonathan Lee

Ahmad Bradshaw longest rush: OVER 16.5 yards
I like the over pick for this proposition bet because of recent history. In his last six games, including the playoffs, Bradshaw has had a run of 17 yards or longer in every game but one. The one game where he failed was in the NFC championship game against the best rush defense in the league in the San Francisco 49ers. It should be noted that the Patriots held Ray Rice to a 12 yard run in the AFC championship game. However, the Ravens were a run heavy team that lacked a truly dangerous receiving threat. Eli Manning will force the Pats to respect the pass, giving Bradshaw room to run.

Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis score a touchdown: Yes
The line has no as the likelier outcome. AccuScore’s forecast has Green-Ellis scoring 0.6 rushing touchdowns in the game, which makes this pick a toss-up. I like Green-Ellis’ touchdown chances in the Super Bowl because of his success against a very good run defense in the Baltimore Ravens. In the AFC championship game he rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries. The Patriots’ passing game opens up holes for the running game, especially in the red zone. Also, Green-Ellis has score four touchdowns in his last five games, so he gets plenty of action within the goal line.

Bradshaw vs. Green-Ellis longer rush in game: Bradshaw
BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn’t the type of running back to bust out a 50-yard run. In fact, his longest rush of the year was 18 yards against the Giants back in November. Bradshaw isn’t a super explosive back either, but he is more than capable of grabbing a bunch of yards at once. Over the season and the playoffs, Bradshaw’s longest rush in a game was over 20 yards five times and over 30 yards three times. Assuming Bradshaw doesn’t get sidelined with an injury, I like his chances this Sunday.



Accuscore Super Bowl Props: Tight Ends & Receivers -- Jonathan Lee

WIDE RECEIVER PROPS

Victor Cruz Under 88.5 receiving yards (-106)
The betting odds imply a probability of 51.5 percent. AccuScore simulations have that number closer to 60 percent with Cruz averaging 77.7 yards per outing. That number is virtually identical to that of Hakeem Nicks which means both have almost an equal chance of being the top target for the Giants. While Cruz is without a doubt an explosive receiver, Eli Manning will has several targets on the outside and it is just as likely for somebody else to lead the team in receiving for a one game outing.

Wes Welker Over 78.5 receiving yards (-114)
Welker appears to be slightly undervalued looking at the prop bet lines because of the focus on Hernandez and Gronkowski. The terrific Giants receiving crew also appears to be diverting some attention away from Welker, but it was the slot receiver that led the league in catches and was second in yardage during the regular season. While that has tailed off somewhat in the playoffs it is good to remember that the Patriots only played twice because of the opening round bye, and the Denver game was a complete rout. Welker averages 96 yards per simulation, and top 80 receiving yards 61.1 percent of the time. The -114 line only implies 53.3 percent providing about 8 percent edge.

Hakeem Nicks Will Score a TD (+105)
Looking at the projections, Nicks is the most likely player in this game to score a touchdown averaging 0.7 per simulation. As a comparison, Gronkowski averages 0.5, Manningham 0.5 Hernandez 0.4, and Cruz 0.4. The +105 line translates into 48.8 percent. AccuScore says Nicks is 52.4 percent likely to catch a touchdown Sunday.

Aaron Hernandez Under 3 Rush Attempts (-132)
One of the most interesting wrinkles the Patriots have utilized this postseason is running Hernandez out of the backfield instead of throwing him a pass. They have done this eight times so far in the playoffs, but AccuScore projects him to run the ball just 1.4 times in the Super Bowl. He has under 3 total rushes in 82.7 percent of simulations while the -132 betting line actually translates into 56.9 percent giving the bettor a significant edge.

Aaron Hernandez Under 5.5 Pass Receptions (+102)
AccuScore simulations say Hernandez will go Under 5.5 receptions 74 percent of the time. The +102 line implies a probability of 49.5 percent again creating value for the bettor.

Cruz vs. Welker – Most receiving yards: Welker +10 yards (-112)
For all of Victor Cruz’s brilliance this season, it’s easy to overlook that Welker outgained Cruz by 33 yards during the regular season and scored the same number of touchdowns (9). While Cruz has had the better postseason, 10 yards is a lot to give to the most consistent yardage weapon in the NFL. Average simulations have Welker outgaining Cruz 96.0 to 77.7. Welker is a great value getting 10 yards against Cruz.

[TheGame]

Rob Gronkowski (ankle) returned to a limited practice on Thursday.

[TheGame]

Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview: High scoring affair on the horizon
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com

I’m not in agreement with the recent downward move on the Super Bowl total; now at 54 and even 53 at Pinnacle. While many are pointing out that seven of the last eight Super Bowls lined at 46.5 points or higher have gone under the total, I note that the last three Super Bowls all had at least 47 points scored including last year’s 31-25 Green Bay win over Pittsburgh (a side winner for us). The Saints beat the Colts in 2009 as a touchdown underdog, 31-17 (a side winner for us), but the game finished under the posted total of 56.5 points.

Like that contest, Super Bowl XLVI has two top quarterbacks that are supremely skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play. Going against suspect secondaries on both sides in perfect conditions should result in plenty of big plays in the passing game. The linesmaker is also projecting big passing days by both Eli Manning and Tom Brady, with over/under passing yards posted at 312 and 323 respectively. Both teams will spread the field with their talented receivers and take advantage of two poor pass defenses. Each quarterback is also very comfortable and efficient operating the no-huddle offense.  New England ranked 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 294 ypg and an AFC-worst 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Giants were not much better, allowing 255 passing ypg and 7.5 yards per pass attempt – although they faced the league’s toughest second-half schedule and have been much better during their run to the Super Bowl.  New England’s bend but don’t break defense was among the best in the league in defensive yards per point (19.0), but note that the Patriots did not face many quality quarterbacks throughout the season.

The Patriots have won 10-straight games and scored at least 31 points in eight of those contests. Also note though that they beat just one team with a winning record this season, and that was their last game against the Baltimore Ravens in which the Patriots were outgained and escaped with a 23-20 win despite a -2 turnover margin. The Patriots had a +14 TO margin during the regular season; among the league’s best.  New York enters on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and have played by far the toughest schedule down the stretch. Eli Manning is now 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs during his career.

Recall that in the Giants 24-20 win at New England in November, WR Hakeem Nicks, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, fullback Henry Hynosky or center David Bass did not play. So the Giants offense should be even stronger, and note that Eli Manning (39) and Tom Brady (49) combined for nearly 90 pass attempts in the regular season meeting and Manning was not sacked.

Now on the fast track indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, the possibility is real that we may see the highest-scoring Super Bowl since the Patriots 32-29 win over the Carolina in 2003 or even Tampa’s 48-21 blowout of Oakland in 2002. I expect this game to live up to the offensive billing and prove to be both entertaining for fans that prefer offense, and profitable for over the total bettors. Basic strategy is to look at under wagers in RB and WR player props, but this year’s Super Bowl could prove plenty profitable for points and props over the total.

[TheGame]

So who's going to win the Super Bowl?
Bryan Leonard
Playbook.com

So who's going to win the Super Bowl? Better yet, who's going to cover? There are a lot of factors to examine carefully when trying to determine who has the edge. One of the simplest to examine, and very revealing, is defense. Defense wins championships, of course, and when we look at the defensive merits of the Giants and Patriots, it's a mixed bag.

Both ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed with the Giants 25th and the Pats were second worst in yards allowed. On the other hand, both defenses have been strong down the stretch. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, and the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games. The Patriots are 12-6 over the total, including a 7-1 run over in the playoffs.

In an attempt to look forward towards Sunday's big game, let's take a look backward. Backward at defense, that is. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were  both ranked are in the Top 10 in total defense.

Two years ago was a bit of an oddity, as both the Colts and Saints were dynamite offensively but had poor overall defensive stats. That's not the norm. Eight years ago the Patriots were 7th in total defense and the Carolina Panthers were 8th. In addition, run defense is a bit more important statistically than pass defense, because it's essential to be able to stop the run first. If the opposition can run successfully, especially on third down and short situations, there is less of a need to pass. Also, a successful running attack makes the passing game much more effective, with play-actions drawing the safeties forward and defenses having to bring more linebackers and defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage. This can create mismatches and single coverage downfield, which is why offensive coordinators love balanced offenses. In that Super Bowl, the Patriots were 3rd against the run, the Panthers 11th. The Patriots won 32-29.

Nine years ago, the Raiders had the No. 1 offense in the NFL but the 'D' was 11th overall and a poor 23rd against the run. Tampa Bay was No. 1 in total defense and No. 6 against the run. The result? A huge win for the defense, as the underdog Bucs trashed the Raiders 48-21. Chalk up a big "W" for defense!

Nine years ago the Patriots were 24th in total 'D' and 18th against the run. The 14-point favorite Rams were No. 2 in total 'D' and 3rd against the run. That partly explains why the Patriots 20-17 upset win was one of the biggest surprises in Super Bowl history. Although there's no denying that the Pats were better defensively than the stats might suggest with Bill Belichick in charge. The Pats 'D' had also played exceptionally well the final ten games of that season. And in 2008 the defense of the Giants knocked off the No. 1 offense, 17-14, as a +12 Super Bowl dog over the Pats.

11 years ago the Ravens were No. 2 in total defense and No. 1 against the rush. The Giants were No. 5 in total 'D' and No. 2 against the rush. Chalk another one up for defense as the Ravens dominated in a 34-7 rout.

12 years ago the Rams had an explosive offense behind MVP Kurt Warner, No. 1 in total offense. But don't forget that St. Louis team was also No. 6 in total defense and No. 1 against the run! Their opponent, Tennessee, was 17th in total 'D' and 10th against the run. Chalk about another win for the better Super Bowl defense in the Rams' 23-16 victory.

Want to go back further? The Denver Broncos won back to back Super Bowl titles behind QB John Elway and an explosive offense. But lost in the shuffle of the strong offense was that Denver's defense ranked 5th and 11th in those years, when they beat Atlanta and Green Bay. The Falcons had a slightly better overall defense (8th) but Denver was statistically better than the 1997 Packers, who were a poor 20th against the run. Green Bay was a big favorite in that Super Bowl, but Terrell Davis exploited that  weak run 'D' in Denver's victory as a big dog.

So, yes, defense is more important to have than offense on Super Sunday. And this season? The Patriots are 31st in total defense, the Giants Steelers No. 29 against the pass, with the No. 19 run defense, 121 yards rushing per game. A year ago the Steelers and Packers were ranked No. 1 and 2 in the NFL in points allowed, but this season the Pats and Giants are 17th and 25th in points allowed. An aberration? Or is this a year we see a 38-34 shootout?

[TheGame]

Super Bowl betting: Vegas news, line movement and action report

Friday

Giants still receiving most of action

As we head into the weekend, the action is picking up, and it’s still slanted toward the Giants. Most books are reporting about a 60/40 split in favor of New York in terms of total bets placed.

But big bets have been showing on the Patriots moneyline (-135) at Cal-Neva sportsbooks, according to supervisor Chris Andrews.

The rush on the Under also showed up at Cal-Neva on Friday, with significant bets coming in on Under 55 and Under 54.5. Max wagers also were placed on Under 28 and 27.5 in the first half.

--David Purdum

The calm before the storm

Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran oddsmaker at Lucky’s sportsbook, says this has been one of the easier Super Bowls to book in recent memory.

“We’ve been serving Patriots -3 (even) for nine days now and I expect we’ll be sitting right there up until Sunday,” he told Covers.com Friday afternoon. That said, he isn’t letting his guard down.

“Games like this have a funny way of getting at you as the kickoff nears," he added. "Once 12 p.m. on Sunday hits, you never know what you’re in for.”

Right now Vaccaro is writing three Giants tickets for every two Pats tickets, though the money is pretty much even. He also adds that he doesn’t think bettors will have any trouble finding Pats -2.5 lines around on Sunday.

"The Giants are just such a public bet right now," he says. "A lot of Pats bettors are just going to wait this out."

Like many books, Lucky’s currently has a 54-point total on the board after sharps came in heavy on the under to knock the total down from 54.5.

“I’d much rather take under money early in the week as opposed to late,” Vaccaro adds. “We all know we’re going to get a pile of tourists betting the over this weekend, so it gives us a better chance to have balanced action.”

Vaccaro doesn't expect to move his total any lower right now, but a few online shops continue to move this number down.

Pinnacle was sitting at 53 points early Friday evening, while Bet365, Bwin and Sportingbet were serving 53.5

- Ryan Stetson

Books adjust "First team to.." prop bet odds

Ashton Grewal is in Las Vegas this week, getting the scoop on all the Super Bowl betting action.

He talked to Bob Scucci, race and sportsbook director for Coast Hotels, Friday afternoon. Scucci says they’ve had to make major adjustments to the “First team to receive” prop and other connected prop wagers.

Due to the Patriots’ tendency to defer receiving to the second half, and the Giants’ historically wanting to receive first, oddsmakers have had to move the Giants to -200 for the “First team to receive” prop with sharp money flooding in on New York.

New England has deferred the last 29 times it has won the coin toss. New York, on the other hand, has opted to receive the last 30 coin flips it has won, dating back to Week 1 of the 2008 season.

Along with that prop, sharps have been pounding the “First team to..” wagers, like “First team to complete a pass”, “First team to pass the 50-yard line” and “First team to score”, with all the money coming in on New York.

Offshore books have followed suit. Sportsbook.com currently has the Giants at -180 to receive first, while the Patriots are priced at +150.

Gronkowski prop bets not affected by status update

LVH oddsmakers took into account Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain before posting props on his performance. As of now, it seems like they came up with good numbers; Gronk’s props haven’t moved much.

The O/U on Gronk’s receiving yards fell from 77.5 to 76.5. The O/U on his catches went from 5.5 flat to 5.5 Under (-120). The O/U on his longest catch went from 21.5 flat to 21.5 Over (-120).

Of course, those props will be “No Action” if Gronk doesn’t play.

“I’ll be real curious to see how he looks in pregame warm-ups,” LVH SuperBook director Jay Kornegay said. “I don’t think they’re going to let him do much until then.”

If Gronk suffers a setback and is ruled out before kickoff, Kornegay said the line and total would each move half a point.

“The number has already been adjusted so much,” he said.

--Larry Hartstein

Thursday

Some books bracing for public money on total

The MGM Mirage is one of the few Nevada books with the total for Super Bowl XLVI at 54.5 points. Many of the other shops have dropped the number to 54 after a rush of action on the under 55 forced books to trim the total earlier this week.

Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the Mirage, says he’s keeping it high because of the impending migration of public bettors to Las Vegas in the coming days, who have historically bet the favorite and the over in hopes of an exciting high-scoring game.

“For us, we want to see how much we can stock pile on the under before that tidal wave of over money comes in from the public,” says Rood. “I’m keeping it high right now.”

The Mirage is expecting a huge turnout for the Super Bowl and will be at 100 percent occupancy. Rood also said some high rollers from the casino are stopping by the sportsbook for the Big Game, bringing some big bets to the counter on Super Sunday.

Big handle building on Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bets are getting more and more popular with football bettors every Super Bowl. Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, says that this year could be one of the biggest handles for props ever.

“We’ve taken a huge handle on our props alone. We’ve booked well over a half a million on them right now,” says Rood, who expects that number to continue rising as Sunday draws closer.

As far as some of the favorite prop picks with bettors, Rood says he’s had to adjust the prop odds on “Total number of Patriots with a reception”, dropping the number from its opening of 7.5 to 7 with sharp money flooding in on the under.

“The sharps generally bet these things under for the Super Bowl,” he says. “We put it up early last week and the professionals pounded it under. Funny enough, we put up the same prop for the Giants, 7.5, and they’ve been betting the over.”

Rood says other popular prop bets have been “Total number of punts (8.5)” and “First player to score a touchdown”.

-- Jason Logan

Wednesday

Cantor director surprised by big move on total

Mike Colbert, sportsbook director at Cantor Gaming, was surprised to see the over/under total on the Super Bowl drop 1.5 at the prominent offshore sportsbook PinnacleSports.com.

“That’s a pretty big move, and I don’t see that going back up,” Colbert said Wednesday afternoon from his office at the M Resort. “It surprised me, because I thought it would have happened later, not in the middle of the week. But some folks must think it has topped out. That’s not public money betting the under in the middle of the week.”

Colbert added that he was holding 75 percent Over bets and was basically asking for under bets at this point in the week.

Cantor Gaming, which operates the sportsbooks at the M, Hard Rock, Venetian, Palms and other Vegas casinos, was offering New England -3 (+105) with a total of 54.5, as of 2 p.m. PT, Wednesday.

--David Purdum

Total plunging

The total, which opened at 55 at Pinnacle, fell all the way to 53 late Wednesday morning.

You can still find it as high as 54.5 at offshore and Vegas books, but the trend is definitely downward.

Legends and BetOnline have dropped the total 1.5 points since opening at 55.5. A quick scan Wednesday afternoon did not show any books still offering 55.

The action on the under could stem from the latest news on Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who admitted Wednesday he hasn't done much running on his sprained ankle. An ESPN report suggested Gronk (90 catches, 1,327 receiving yards, 18 TD) might be available Sunday only in a limited role.

--Larry Hartstein

Veteran handicapper: "Line will drop below -2.5"

Veteran professional sports bettor Lem Banker believes the Super Bowl line will be coming down, so he’s waiting before placing his wager on the Patriots.

“More New York money is going to come in,” Banker told Covers.com in a phone interview from his Las Vegas residence. “So I’m going to wait and then I’m going to lay the money-price and also lay the points.”

Banker says Tom Brady is the best quarterback he's ever seen, “and I’ve seen them all.”

He is also basing his bet on the New England offensive line’s ability to protect Brady.

“I really think New England has an advantage up front,” Banker added.

--David Purdum

Patriots money still coming in

It’s not all Giants’ money out there.

The Cal-Neva sportsbook one of the first to drop the Super Bowl line from Patriots -3 to -2.5. According to sportsbook director Chris Andrews, they went to -2.5 last Wednesday in an attempt to generate action on the Patriots. It worked.

“We had to go right back up to -3 Thursday,” said Andrews. “And the move back up was because of wise-guy money.”

As of 9 a.m. ET Wednesday, there were still a handful  of shops in Nevada and offshore offering Patriots -2.5, but the most common line is New England -3 (even).

The total can be found at 55 with a few 54.5s available.

--David Purdum

Tuesday

Vegas books prepare for annoying Super Bowl tradition

It never fails. In the moments before kickoff of the biggest sporting event of the year, a guy will step to the window of a jam-packed Vegas sportsbook wanting to bet something other than the Super Bowl.

"He'll want to bet a bunch of Stanley Cup futures or something like that," MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jay Rood said.

Caesars' Todd Fuhrman sees the same thing every year.

"It could be NASCAR, baseball futures, or a European soccer game. And he wants to bet $5 on the game," Fuhrman said. "Meanwhile, there's an angry mob behind him."

Please don't be that guy.

--Larry Hartstein

Bettors love under on Manning props

Vegas books are moving prop lines after bettors hammered the under on Eli Manning's passing yards and touchdowns.

At Caesars Palace, the over/under on Manning's passing yards fell from 310 to 304.5. At MGM Mirage, the O/U on Manning's TD passes is still 2.5, but the juice changed dramatically. The under went from even to -200.

"That's a pretty big move," said Rood, who takes $2,000 max bets on props.

The prop trend is a bit surprising considering 60 percent of the action is on the Giants, Rood said, "but maybe they're calculating in [Ahmad] Bradshaw and [Brandon] Jacobs."

Other props on the move: O/U on Hakeem Nicks catches, 6 to 5.5; O/U on Victor Cruz catches, 6 to 5.5; O/U on Tom Brady completions, 25.5 to 25; O/U on number of Patriots to catch a pass, 7.5 to 7.

--Larry Hartstein

Gronkowski's status impacting line

The biggest Super Bowl betting storyline remains New England tight end Rob Gronkowski’s ankle. He’s listed as day-to-day and isn’t expected to be at full strength, even if he plays.

His status has bookmakers on edge.

“If they announce Friday that he’s not going to play, we’re not going to be able to get anyone to bet on the Patriots,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of Lucky’s sportsbooks. “I’ve had action on every Super Bowl, starting with taking the Packers -13.5 in the first Super Bowl, and I don’t ever remember a tight end moving the line. But Gronkowski’s doing it.”

--David Purdum

Monday, January 30

Early money on Giants, but majority of bets yet to be placed

The majority of the early money, both sharp and square, has been on the Giants. CNBC's Darren Rovell tweeted that 80 percent of the max $25,000 bets at the offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com were on the Giants.

But there’s still a ton of money not yet in play.

Veteran Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who has been booking Super Bowls since the mid-70s, estimates 90 percent of the total handle bet on the Super Bowl will be placed on Saturday and Sunday.

“Right now, the money looks about 60/40 in favor of the Giants,” said Vaccaro, sportsbooks director at Lucky’s, “but if you call me back in 20 minutes that could have changed. We really don’t know anything yet.”

As of Monday afternoon, Lucky’s was in the majority of Vegas books, offering the Patriots -3 (even).

--David Purdum

South Point moving from 3 to 2.5 and back to 3

Bert Osborne, the sportsbook manager at South Point, opened his Super Bowl spread at 3.5 but didn’t stay there long.

“I think we were there for about 15 minutes,” Osborne told Covers.com. “We got a couple – I wouldn’t even say big bets - probably medium bets on the Giants. I didn’t want to risk it so I dropped us down to 3.”

Osborne says those medium bets were five figures.

South Point is at Patriots -2.5 but Osborne says he’s gone back and forth between 2.5 and 3 over the last couple days. Osborne says his book doesn’t play with the juice, which explains the yo-yo effect with South Point’s Super Bowl spread.

Final note: Osborne says he likes the Patriots over the Giants 31-20 in Super Bowl XLIV. He also predicted South Point would close its Super Bowl spread at 2.5.

--Ashton Grewal

Cantor shops holding steady at 3

Cantor Gaming, which runs the sportsbooks at the Venetian, Hard Rock, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan and the M Resort, was one of the only books to open with a field goal spread. While everyone else spent some time at 3.5 and even 4 (Wynn), Cantor boss Mike Colbert opened at Pats -3 (-115).

“We got some early Patriot money, I think because we were the only ones that low,” Colbert told Covers.com. “We’re standing dead even now but we’re a little heavy on the Giants on the moneyline.”

Colbert said he’s not worried about the possibility of a push with the spread sitting on the most common separation in football final scores.

“This is a real easy number for public bettors to understand,” Colbert said. “My mother understands 3 even money but she doesn’t with 2.5 -125.”

[TheGame]

Super Bowl Trends
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The most wagered-on event during the year comes on Sunday with Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. Everyone comes out of the woodwork from novice bettors to professionals for this contest, the final football game until early September. Looking back through Super Bowl history, there are several key things to remember before placing bets for Sunday's showdown.

From a totals perspective, the 'under' has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls, even though last year's game finished 'over' the total between the Packers and Steelers. However, with the total set at 54 for the Giants and Patriots, the 'under' has hit more often than not in Super Bowls listed at 50 or above in the totals department. Since 1990, five of seven games that closed with a total of more than 50 cashed the 'under,' including Super Bowl XLII between New York and New England (55 total, 17-14 final).

Picking the winner and not worrying about the points has helped bettors in the last 11 Super Bowls, with the victorious team covering the spread eight times in this stretch. The only two clubs to win the game and not cash were the Patriots (vs. Panthers and Eagles) and Steelers (vs. Cardinals) since 2001. For the exception of the upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI, New England is 1-4 ATS in its five Super Bowl appearances in franchise history.

Even though the game has changed since the first Super Bowl in 1967, one number has stayed consistent regarding AFC East teams against the spread. Since the merger in 1970, AFC East clubs own a dreadful 4-11-1 ATS mark in Super Bowls, while the Patriots are the only team to cover in the last 37 years (Colts in '71, Dolphins in '73 and '74).

The short line doesn't necessarily mean a close game, as seven of the last nine Super Bowls (since 1975) with a closing line between 2 and 3½ have resulted in a double-digit victory by the winner. The only two exceptions came in XIII (Steelers 35-31 over the Cowboys) and XLV (Packers 31-26 over the Steelers), while the average margin of victory is 16.6 points per game in these nine instances.

Favorites have cashed in 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls, while the favorite/'over' combination has come in 10 times since 1990. The least frequent combination in this span is the underdog/'over' combo, which only hit in XXXII (Packers over the Broncos) and XXXVII (Buccaneers over the Raiders).

Super Bowl Stories

We've all been there with great calls on Super Sunday, while other games fell apart before the crazy halftime show. Several handicappers from VegasInsider.com provided us some anecdotes about highlights and lowlights regarding the Super Bowl.

Micah Roberts saw his best and worst moments with the Denver Broncos, starting with Super Bowl XXIV in 1989. "The Broncos finally had a running game with an All-Pro running-back in Bobby Humphrey. I thought this would finally be their chance to get John Elway a win after two Super Bowl defeats. I was only 19 at the time and going to college, but I put up almost everything I had on Denver plus all the points (+12) and then watched in misery as the on-slaught ensued with the 49ers winning 55-10. At least it was apparent early on that I had no chance of winning and got to deal with reality quicker."

However, Roberts picked up his revenge with the Broncos as a huge underdog nine years later against the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. "My bankroll was much larger then and I played every prop that went along with my scenario of how to beat the Packers. I waited in line to bet a large amount on the opening money-line downtown, didn't even take the points even though it was double-digits. Knowing the only way I could win my bets was by Denver running the ball right down the Packers throats, I played everything I could find on Terrell Davis 'over' and almost everything on Elway 'under' and it worked out to perfection. It still remains my largest overall Super Bowl win. I don't think I lost a single prop bet that day."

Marc Lawrence also went the underdog route in his biggest Super Bowl triumph, "Best advice is using teams playing at a peak level, especially as an underdog. My best Super Bowl win was Giants (+12) over Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. The Pats were undefeated and under enormous pressure to complete a perfect season. They were also showing signs of cracking, riding a 5-game ATS losing skid heading into the game."

From my perspective, the most satisfying Super Bowl win came two years ago when the Saints (+5) picked up their first title as outright 'dogs against the Colts. New Orleans never folded after falling behind early, while the famous call from Sean Payton to pull off the onside kick to start the second half turned all the momentum.

[TheGame]

Las Vegas sports books caving in to 2½ for Super Bowl February 03, 2012 10:21 AM by Micah Roberts

Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello tried to hang on with the Patriots -3 as long as he could, but finally had to give in on Thursday morning when the culmination of Giants money over the first 11 days of action became too much.

"It’s been non-stop Giants money," said Avello who now has the Patriots -2½ (-115). "I’d rather go now and test the waters to see if I can find some Patriots money out there."

Avello joins Coast Resorts (-2½ -115), MGM Resorts (-2½ -125) and the South Point (-2 ½ -110) who have already made the move below -3.

"I figure we have only seen about 12% of the action thus far and I already have the lowest money-line in town (Patriots -130/+110) that hasn’t attracted New England money, so I’m going to test it out and see what I can get. I definitely don’t want to be the last to make the move."

The fact that Avello hasn’t had any large money nibbles on the money line at -130 is pretty telling. It’s a sign sharp money that may like the Patriots are waiting until the sports books get desperate closer to game time when we could see a -125 or -120 with a book crying out for any Patriots money.

Sharp money matters very little in the overall equation for the Super Bowl, but it’s always nice to use their bets as a barometer to what is attractive.

With all the action that has occurred thus far, Avello thinks this year’s Super Bowl numbers will beat last year’s $87.4 million handled throughout Nevada last year.

"Action is already bigger early than last year," said Avello. "I don’t know if we can get to the record ($94.5 million in 2006), but I think we’ll beat last year’s. Between the massive following of the two teams and a low spread, I would be surprised if it didn’t surpass last year."

Avello has also gotten a ton of action on his props. The biggest mover thus far has been the prop asking who will run the first offensive play.

"We opened the Giants at -120 and got a ton of action early and then I come to find out that the reason behind all the bets is that the Patriots have deferred 27 straight times," Avello said with a chuckle. "So we’ve moved it pretty quick up the ladder -240. Who knows, the Giants could win the toss and defer themselves just to begin the game by not letting Belichick get his way."

[TheGame]

Coaching and X-Factors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The talk throughout the week regarding Super Bowl XLVI between the Giants and Patriots has revolved around several storylines. The first headline is the status of New England tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is a gametime decision with an ankle injury. Another storyline involves the rematch of Super Bowl XLII in which the Giants upended the previously unbeaten Patriots. But one of the overlooked matchups on Sunday is the one between the two generals on the sidelines.

Bill Belichick is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, while going for his first championship since 2004. One of the key numbers heading into Sunday is a 9-0 SU/ATS record since 2001 when the Patriots are playing with same-season revenge. The Giants rallied to knock off the Patriots, 24-20 in Week 9 as nine-point underdogs. In the only instance of same-season revenge in 2011, New England came back to drill Buffalo in Week 17 with a 49-21 trouncing of the Bills.   

For all the criticism he has heard over the years, Tom Coughlin is looking for his second Vince Lombardi trophy as head coach of the Giants. New York has put together five winning campaigns in the last seven seasons, while going 7-2 ATS this season in the underdog role. The Giants own a 3-5 ATS mark since 2010 in the second meeting of the season, as New York picked up victories in this scenario against Green Bay and San Francisco in the playoffs.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Micah Roberts feels the advantage goes to the Patriots' head man, "I like Belichick in big games when he has time to prepare. When I look back at his loss to the Giants four years ago, you have to account for the weight of the undefeated season which was a bear to carry. And it still took some miracle occurrences for the Giants to win that game."

On the flip side, Marc Lawrence has provided numbers to support the Giants' leader, "Most like Belichick over Coughlin, but the fact is Belichick is only 2-6-1 ATS with rest during the postseason, including 0-5 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back wins. In addition, Belichick is 3-1 SU in Super Bowl games, with all four games decided by exactly three points. Meanwhile, Coughlin is 8-3 ATS as playoff dog."

From an X-factor perspective, there are several names of players to keep an eye on that can make a difference. A forgotten man in the New England attack is Chad Ochocinco, who caught just 15 passes for 276 yards, as the ex-Bengals' standout is playing in his first Super Bowl. Fellow veteran and former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch contributed 702 yards on 51 receptions, including a touchdown catch in the divisional playoff win over the Broncos.

Gronkowski is the most valuable tight end on the field, but the Giants will counter with Jake Ballard, who scored the game-winning touchdown in Foxborough in Week 9. Ballard missed the final two games of the regular season, but had a four-game stretch in October/November in which he amassed at least 50 yards receiving.

Roberts has his eye on New England's second tight end to be a difference-maker, "I think the X-factor in this game will be Aaron Hernandez, and not just because of Gronkowski being gimpy. Hernandez is a unique player that is hard to defend and I see Brady using him quite often. I would go 'over' on just about everything with Hernandez, including scoring a touchdown at +115."

Patriots' kicker Stephen Gostkowski finished tied for ninth in the regular season with 28 made field goals, while converting the third most-extra points with 59. The Giants didn't kick many field goals, as Lawrence Tynes made 19, which was tied for 28th in the league. However, the last time Tynes kicked a game-winning field goal in the NFC Title game, the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

[TheGame]

SBXLVI Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Update – Saturday Feb. 4 (2:30 a.m. PT)

While several Las Vegas sports books have remained content with their Patriots -3 (EV) number for the long haul, Johnny Avello felt the need to maneuver some more after already making the move to Patriots -2½ two days ago. On Saturday morning, Wynn Las Vegas dropped the line to it’s lowest point yet at Patriots -2.

“It’s a business decision based on where we need to be with everything that has occurred the last two days and also anticipating action over the next two days,” said Avello who initially opened the Patriots -4. “This is where we need to be.”

The other sports books around town have been reporting more two-way action now compared to what the first seven days did where it was all Giants money.

Lucky’s sports books made the move below -3 on Friday when they dropped the Patriots to -2½ (-115) while major books like Station Casinos and The LVH Super Book have remained steady at -3 (EV). Coast Resorts recently went back to Patriots -3 (EV) after playing around for a few days at -2½ with money attached.

South Point sports director Bert Osborne has held steady with the Patriots to -2½ (-110) which was the best line out there until the Wynn joined him a few days ago, buy says he's closer to going back to -3 than going down further.

"This last move to -2½ has been pretty steady for us with a little more volume on the Patriots," said Osborne.

Even though Avello can’t say so himself, the reasoning likely behind their move to -2 is because of large house players, or maybe one or two particular whales. In most cases, these type of bettors that wager $500,000 to $1 million don’t care what the line is and are given anything they want as far as limits go. Between the Wynn and Encore, you can believe that there are quite a few whales lodged there for the Super Bowl weekend, one of busiest of the year.

Again, this is all hypothetical, but Avello would then be in the position to best balance out his book. There’s no better way to do that than offer the best line in the world on the other side, which also includes his money line sitting at -130. My best guess is that one of those whales arrived on Friday night and laid a ton of cash on the Giants at +2½ putting Avello in a spot where he needs any, and all the Patriots money he can find and the best way to get it is have the best line.

[TheGame]

A league source tells Profootballtalk.com Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (questionable, ankle) will play in Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants.
Gronkowski will be active, but the question remains whether and to what extent he’ll be effective. Playing just two weeks removed from an injury that typically sidelines players 2-4 weeks, he remains at risk of re-injury. Agent Drew Rosenhaus said he expects Gronkowski to be at considerably less than peak capacity, and that he wouldn't be playing this week if it wasn't the Super Bowl.