Service Plays Sunday. 1/29

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College Funds

Sunday's Best NCAAB Bets

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Connecticut Huskies

At first glance the trends would point to a convincing win for Connecticut when it hosts Note Dame on Sunday afternoon. The Huskies are 10-1 at home this season, 8-1 all-time against the Fighting Irish inside the XL Center, and they won by 14 at Note Dame on Jan. 14.

However, the two teams seem to be going in opposite directions at the moment. Connecticut has lost two consecutive games (0-2 ATS) and four of its last six (2-4 ATS). The defending NCAA champs are coming off a 13-point home setback to Cincinnati and a three-point loss at Tennessee. Notre Dame has won two in a row, including a 67-58 victory at then-No. 1 Syracuse last Saturday followed by a 55-42 road win at Seton Hall on Wednesday.

A big reason for the Irish's recent turnaround is the play of 6'9'' forward Jack Cooley, who recorded double-doubles against both Syracuse (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Seton Hall (13 points and 11 rebounds). Cooley played at least 34 minutes in both games and added two blocks in each contest.

Connecticut will continue to be without guard Ryan Boatright, who has been sidelined since January 9 due to eligibility issues. Boatright is averaging 10.2 points and 3.5 assists in 10 games this season.

Pick: Notre Dame

Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State has been an unstoppable force at home this season. The Buckeyes are a perfect 15-0 on their home floor, including 8-2 ATS. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five in Columbus and crushing opponents by an average of 27 points in that span.

Similarly, Michigan has been stellar at home this year but it is just 1-4 in road games. The Wolverines destroyed Nebraska away from home last weekend but their two previous road tests saw them lose to Indiana and Illinois while failing to cover the spread both times.

For the Buckeyes, big man Jared Sullinger (17.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg) is healthy and heating up. He has scored in double-figures in 10 consecutive games and he recorded his first double-double (20 points, 13 rebounds) in his last five outings this week in a 24-point home win over Penn State.

"He looks a little quicker, and he is shooting threes just enough (so that) you have to guard him," Michigan head coach John Beilein said of Sullinger. "It's always a concern when you have a guy who can pick and pop and roll, both of them. It's a big roll coming down there, a big pop you have to go get. We'll be working on that to defend both."

Pick: Ohio State

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Game of the day: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-4.5, 191.5)

THE STORY: One of the most hotly anticipated rematches finally hits the hardcourt Sunday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat.

It's the first meeting between the NBA powerhouses since last season's Eastern Conference final, won by the Heat in five decisive games. Not much changed for either team in the offseason, and both clubs are off to predictably strong starts.

The Bulls have the best record in the East, already own a 3.5-game lead in the Central Division and are an impressive 8-3 on the road. Chicago is coming off a 107-100 triumph over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks behind a season-high 34 points from reigning MVP Derrick Rose. Sunday marks the kickoff of a marathon nine-game road trip for the Bulls, who won't play again at the United Center until Feb. 14.

Their first opponent on the trek may be their toughest, as they encounter a Heat squad finally back at full strength after missing guard Dwyane Wade for six games with an ankle injury. He made an impressive return Friday night, scoring 28 points as the Heat rolled past the New York Knicks 99-89 for their third consecutive victory.

LINE: The Heat opened as 4.5-point favorites. The total opended at 191.5.

ABOUT THE BULLS (17-4, 12-9 ATS): With mixed martial arts and other activities taking over the United Center for the next two weeks, Chicago faces the longest road trip any team in the league will endure this season. As for Sunday's East final rematch, Rose says it's no big deal. "It's another game because it's the next game," he said. "We're not worried about all the hype. We know that people are going to try to blow it up to be this championship game and all that. But we're not worried about that.

ABOUT THE HEAT (14-5, 8-11 ATS): Wade wasted no time getting back into the swing of things, hammering home an early dunk that showed everyone his ankle is just fine. "I just tried to be aggressive, after being out for a while, one of the best ways to get your rhythm is to attack the basket," he said afterward. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra said the club opted to keep Wade out longer than it might have in years past in order to ensure he was completely healthy.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Chicago won all three regular-season meetings in 2010-11.

2. Wade, a Chicago native, averages 22.2 points in 26 career games against the Bulls.

3. Chicago is 11-2 against Eastern Conference foes, while the Heat are 10-2.

PREDICTION: Heat 90, Bulls 88

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Pick 'n' Roll

Sunday's Best NBA Bets

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic

The Pacers and Magic just faced each other on Tuesday in Indiana, where Orlando dominated 102-83. You wouldn't think a lot could change in just a few days to turn the tide all the way in the Pacers' favor, but that is exactly the case.

Orlando followed up the win with an eight-point home loss to Boston on Thursday and a humiliating 93-67 road loss at New Orleans on Friday. Furthermore, the victory over Indiana was preceded by a shocking 87-56 road loss to the Celtics.

“Looked like guys didn’t want to play,” Dwight Howard vented after getting routed by the Hornets. “I told them at halftime, 'If you don’t want to play, just stay in the locker room.' It doesn’t make sense for a team we should beat to just demolish us. It hurts me to get out there and play your hardest. I expect everybody to play the same. I’m not calling anybody out by no means because we all have to get better."

Howard, of course, was calling out his teammates...and he could be down a few teammates on Sunday. Ryan Anderson (calf) and Jameer Nelson (jaw) are both listed as questionable.

Pick: Pacers

Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets (-6, 204.5)

The Nuggets are 14-5 and trailing only Oklahoma City and Chicago in the overall NBA standings as of Saturday night.

They are positively on fire heading into Sunday's home date with the Clippers. Denver has won six in a row (5-1 ATS), including five on the road and its last two by a combined 44 points. George Karl's squad hammered Sacramento 122-93 on Wednesday and drubbed Toronto 96-81 at home on Friday.

The Nuggets could be without Ty Lawson, who is questionable with a left ankle sprain sustained on Wednesday at Sacramento. He missed Friday's blowout of the Raptors, but that only opened the door for shooting guard Rudy Fernandez. Fernandez played a season-high 33 minutes and poured in a season-high 23 points.

"No, I don't think so; I'm just going day by day to see how it feels," Lawson said on Friday when asked if he could miss up to a week. "It's feeling better than (on Wednesday). We're not missing a beat. Andre (Miller) is a seasoned point guard, one of the best point guards out there."

The Clippers have been up-and-down of late, alternating wins and losses over their last six; resulting in a 3-3 record (3-3 ATS)

Pick: Nuggets

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NFL Pro Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

NFC vs. AFC (+4, 74)

THE STORY: The NFL does have a bowl game scheduled on Sunday. No, not the one pitting the New England Patriots against the New York Giants – that one will take place next week with decidedly far more pomp and circumstance.

This Sunday, the other 30 NFL teams will showcase their stars in the Pro Bowl. Yes, this is the game that often resembles a flag football competition with countless cameos of the stars on rival teams joking with one another along the sideline. Then again, this is also the contest that often draws larger-than-expected ratings as the scoreboard operator gets a spirited workout.

Welcome to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl, which for the third straight year comes one week before that “other” Bowl.

LINE: The NFC opened as a 3.5-point favorite and was bet up to -4. The total was posted at 72.5 points and immediately took action on the over, moving the number to 74.

ABOUT THE NFC: Perhaps not surprisingly, the holders of the conference's top two seeds in the playoffs will be well-represented in Hawaii. San Francisco boasts nine players selected to the Pro Bowl while Green Bay is sending six of its finest to Aloha Stadium, headlined by 49ers stud running back Frank Gore and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and veteran cornerback Charles Woodson. (Gore pulled out due to injury – a common theme for this game.) Green Bay will also send head coach Mike McCarthy, marking the second time that he has guided the NFC in a Pro Bowl (2008). New Orleans’ record-setting QB Drew Brees will see a familiar face in tight end Jimmy Graham, who will be making his first Pro Bowl appearance. With perhaps a future contract in mind, Chicago running back Matt Forte is expected to play despite missing the last four weeks of the regular season with a sprained knee.

ABOUT THE AFC: Four of the eight Baltimore players selected for the contest ultimately pulled out after the Ravens fell to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. As a result, Denver's six Pro Bowlers lead the conference's contingent – although the highly popular Tim Tebow is not among them. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has opted to play despite being hampered by an ailing ankle, thus keeping Tebow on his couch and preventing myriad non-football media outlets from descending on the nation's 50th state. Baltimore LB Ray Lewis will be making his 13th Pro Bowl appearance while Houston coach Gary Kubiak will be enjoying his first.

SUPER SUBSTITUTES: With New England brandishing eight Pro Bowlers who will no longer play in the exhibition, the AFC needed to significantly shuffle its deck. Cincinnati rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and tight end Jermaine Greshman (replacing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) and San Diego wideout Vincent Jackson (Wes Welker) were among the notable additions. On the NFC side, New York quarterback Eli Manning and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul were replaced by Carolina rookie Cam Newton and Chicago veteran Julius Peppers.

ALL ATWITTER: The NFL has relaxed its rules in regard to social media for this one game. Pro Bowl players will be allowed to tweet during the contest – well, sort of. The league designated specific kiosks on the sidelines for players to detail everything that is on their minds without fear of being flagged by Commissioner Roger Goodell.

LAST YEAR/SERIES HISTORY: The NFC posted a wild 55-41 victory over the AFC last year to claim a 21-20 edge in the all-time series. The NFC has won three of the last four Pro Bowls but the AFC holds a 14-12 all-time series lead. Over the past five seasons, the NFC is 4-1 ATS while the over/under is 3-2.

PREDICTION: NFC 49, AFC 35. No field goals here as the teams take turns racing up and down the field. After being named the Super Bowl MVP last season, Rodgers will need to make room in his trophy case (ahem) after being named the Pro Bowl MVP Sunday.

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All-Star Wagers

Some gamblers love All-Star games and others could care less but the one thing we do know is that some folks are paying attention, at least to the results. When it comes to picking a side in these exhibitions, most would agree that the outcomes are toss-ups. However, the recent 'over' trend has made the oddsmakers adjust or some might say overreact.

"To my knowledge, this is the highest Pro Bowl total that I can remember," said Senior Consultant Michael Perry from Sportsbook.com. "The the line has been creeping up every year and it's based off past results. The winning team has scored 38 more points in nine of the last 12 Pro Bowls. Defense is pretty much non-existent because no one wants to see an injury happen in Hawaii."

NFL Pro Bowl History (2007-2011)

2007: AFC 31 NFC 28 (UNDER 64)
2008: NFC 42 AFC 30 (OVER 62.5)
2009: NFC 30 AFC 21 (UNDER 65.5)
2010: AFC 41 NFC 34 (OVER 57)
2011: NFC 55 AFC 41 (OVER 66.5)

This year's total of 74 points is the highest 'over/under' in the past six seasons. Make a note that along with some veteran gunslingers on each side, both the NFC and AFC will have starting rookie quarterbacks. And who knows if that even matters.

While the Pro Bowl has watched the 'over' go 3-2 (60%) in the last five installments, the 'over' in the NHL All-Star Game has been a much better investment. The 'over' has gone 3-1 (75%) and the oddsmakers have adjusted here as well. The total used to hover around 16 goals but this year's has jumped up to 18 or 18 ˝ at some betting shops.

NFC Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Cam Newton

AFC Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Andy Dalton

While the Pro Bowl has watched the 'over' go 3-2 (60%) in the last five installments, the 'over' in the NHL All-Star Game has been a much better investment. The 'over' has gone 3-1 (75%) and the oddsmakers have adjusted here as well. The total used to hover around 16 goals but has jumped up to 18 or 18 ˝ at some betting shops.

Perry added, "I think with the concussion issues that have been surrounding the NHL, that this is pretty much same scenario as with the Pro Bowl. You are going to see hardly any defense played, not like you did before and as a result a game with a slew of goals."

Below are the two teams that were drafted on Thursday for this year's All-Star Game from Ottawa.

NHL All-Star Game History (2007-2011)

2007: West 12 East 9 (OVER 15.5)
2008: East 8 West 7 (UNDER 16)
2009: East 12 West 11 (OVER 16.5)
2010: No game - Winter Olympic Games
2011: Team Lidstrom 11 Team Staal 10 (Over 16.5)

2012 All-Star Game Rosters

Team Chara

Goaltenders
Tim Thomas
Carey Price
Jimmy Howard

Forwards
Joffrey Lupul
Pavel Datsyuk
Evgeni Malkin
Marian Hossa
Patrick Kane
Corey Perry
Phil Kessel
Jarome Iginla
Marian Gaborik
Jordan Eberle
Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn

Defensemen
Zdeno Chara
Kimmo Timonen
Ryan Suter
Brian Campbell
Dennis Wideman
Dion Phaneuf

Team Alfredsson

Goaltenders
Henrik Lundqvist
Jonathan Quick
Brian Elliott

Forwards
Daniel Alfredsson
Jason Spezza
Claude Giroux
Daniel Sedin
Steven Stamkos
Milan Michalek
Henrik Sedin
James Neal
John Tavares
Scott Hartnell
Jason Pominville
Logan Couture

Defensemen
Kris Letang
Shea Weber
Dan Girardi
Keith Yandle
Alex Edler

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David Malinsky

NFC at AFC Jan 29 2012 7:00PM PICK: NFC
REASON FOR PICK: 5* #496 NFC

Yes, All Star games can absolutely be beaten, which we have proven time and time again through the years. It happens because of settings like this one, where the oddsmakers put a generic small line into play, despite one team having significant edges over the other. So there is no hesitation to step in.

The balance of power has been shifting to the NFC in recent years, with the AFC having a couple of very strong teams at the top, but lacking depth. As such, the NFC has won three of the last four Pro Bowls, with each of the wins by nine points or more, and that includes a 55-40 rout LY in which the true reality was much worse than the scoreboard – it was 42-7 at halftime, and still 55-35 until that imaginative give-away fumble TD on the final play. But this time around we see the biggest gap of all, keyed at the most important position of all.

The NFC is simply dominant at QB. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had spectacular seasons, and both also bring the right kind of competitive drive to the table, which means wanting to erase the bitter memory of their playoff defeats. And we do not mind Cam Newton at all at #3, the proto-type of the kind of athletic QB that can be outstanding in these games. With no blitzing allowed, Newton’s mobility to get out of the pocket and make plays is a major advantage.

In many years the AFC could hold its own at QB, with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as good as they come, and Matt Schaub being the MVP the last time the conference won this game. But they won’t be here. Instead it will be Philip Rivers, off of the worst season of his career, Ben Roethlisberger, who is not 100 percent physically, and Andy Dalton. A legitimate case could be made that three NFC QB’s that did not make the cut – Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo – may have all been better than that AFC trio.

And of course there is the Super Bowl factor. That takes eight New England players away from the AFC roster, a significant dent. For the NFC it is only Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul, and because of the depth at their position, there is no major impact. It leaves us with the superior team, with a coaching staff much more familiar with this kind of setting (not bad having Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy coaching his own QB), in a short price range, a range made even smaller by the high number of points that will be scored.

PICK: 5* #496 NFC

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Florida Saturday.

Sunday it’s Ohio State. The deficit is 120 sirignanos.

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 796- 572 (57 %) over the last 3 years PLUS

Your Free Winner Sun: Oregon -1

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Nuggets -6

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DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 2557-791 (.764)
ATS: 1011-1145 (.469)
ATS Vary Units: 3108-3728 (.455)
Over/Under: 1075-1073 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1308-1277 (.506)

America East Conference
VERMONT 67, New Hampshire 52

Atlantic Coast Conference
Miami (Fla.) 70, BOSTON COLLEGE 63
NORTH CAROLINA 82, Georgia Tech 56

Big East Conference
CONNECTICUT 66, Notre Dame 60
SOUTH FLORIDA 68, Providence 58

Big Sky Conference
Montana 77, PORTLAND STATE 69

Big Ten Conference
INDIANA 78, Iowa 67
OHIO STATE 71, Michigan 57

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
FAIRFIELD 74, Marist 56
Iona 80, SAINT PETER'S 64
Loyola (Md.) 72, CANISIUS 60
Manhattan 69, NIAGARA 66
RIDER 74, Siena 69

Missouri Valley Conference
EVANSVILLE 73, Indiana State 63

Pacific-10 Conference
CALIFORNIA 75, Stanford 63
OREGON 79, Oregon State 73

Patriot League
LEHIGH 81, Army 64

Southland Conference
McNEESE STATE 81, Central Arkansas 69

Sun Belt Conference
SOUTH ALABAMA 72, Troy 69

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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 194-84 (.698)
ATS: 152-137 (.526)
ATS Vary Units: 470-401 (.540)
Over/Under: 132-152 (.465)
Over/Under Vary Units: 339-425 (.444)

MIAMI 92, Chicago 89
NEW JERSEY 99, Toronto 93
ORLANDO 95, Indiana 89
BOSTON 96, Cleveland 85
DALLAS 98, San Antonio 91
Atlanta vs. NEW ORLEANS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
L.A. Lakers vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DENVER 108, L.A. Clippers 98

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NCAA Basketball Picks
Michigan at Ohio State

The Wolverines look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 13 points or more. Michigan is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by only 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+14). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 29
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 841-842: Notre Dame at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 62.273; Connecticut 73.015
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 10 1/2; 123
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 8 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-8 1/2); Under

Game 843-844: Miami (FL) at Boston College (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 62.157; Boston College 57.635
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 4 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 8; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick Boston College (+8); Over

Game 845-846: Michigan at Ohio State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 66.836; Ohio State 78.161
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 11 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14; 127
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+14); Under

Game 847-848: Providence at South Florida (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 59.148; South Floirda 68.785
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 9 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: South Florida by 7 1/2; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-7 1/2); Over

Game 849-850: Iowa at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 61.708; Indiana 74.593
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 13; 155
Vegas Line: Indiana by 11 1/2; 151
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11 1/2); Over

Game 851-852: Georgia Tech at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 54.153; North Carolina 72.238
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 18; 139
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 21 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+21 1/2); Under

Game 853-854: Troy at South Alabama (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 48.348; South Alabama 55.915
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 7 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 5 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-5 1/2); Over

Game 855-856: Oregon State at Oregon (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.098; Oregon 61.997
Dunkel Line: Even; 151
Vegas Line: Oregon by 1 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+1 1/2); Under

Game 857-858: Indiana State at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 54.502; Evansville 63.878
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 9 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Evansville by 4 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-4 1/2); Over

Game 859-860: Stanford at California (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 59.696; California 67.181
Dunkel Line: California by 7 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: California by 8 1/2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+8 1/2); Under

Game 861-862: Marist at Fairfield (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 42.045; Fairfield 58.308
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 16 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 15; 135
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-15); Under

Game 863-864: Siena at Rider (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 51.807; Rider 53.840
Dunkel Line: Rider by 2; 145
Vegas Line: Rider by 5; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+5); Over

Game 865-866: Loyola-MD at Canisius (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 52.627; Canisius 44.037
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 8 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 10; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+10); Over

Game 867-868: Manhattan at Niagara (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 56.515; Niagara 51.771
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-2 1/2); Under

Game 869-870: Montana at Portland State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.927; Portland State 55.838
Dunkel Line: Montana by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Montana by 4; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+4); Under

Game 871-872: Iona at St. Peter's (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 60.020; St. Peter's 44.242
Dunkel Line: Iona by 16; 146
Vegas Line: Iona by 14; 142
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-14); Over

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Turner

Chicago at Miami
Pick: Under 191.5

Atlanta at New Orleans
Pick: Under 174.5

Free Picks-
Georgia Tech/North Carolina Under 143.5
Los Angeles Clippers +6

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Basketball Crusher

Montana -4 over Portland State

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Soccer Crusher

Arsenal + Aston Villa OVER 2.5
This match is happening in England

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Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Montana -4 over Portland State

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Cappers Access

(CBB) Michigan
(NFL) AFC

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY
NBA Under 175 Atlanta/New Orleans

[TheGame]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ...

My 80 Dime winner is on the Chicago Bulls as a road underdog against the Miami Heat. Checkang the sports books in Las Vegas at 1 a.m. and the Bulls are gethting 5 points. Always shop around to get the best postible number.

[TheGame]

SPORTS WAGERS

Oregon St +109 over OREGON

After California won at Washington last Thursday, the Golden Bears looked like they may have become the favorite to win the Pac-12. Then Cal lost at Washington State on Saturday. Enter Oregon. The Ducks followed up an impressive road win over Arizona last week with a pair of wins over USC and UCLA. With four wins in a row they now sit tied with Cal, just a half game back of Washington atop the conference standings. The Ducks are 6-2 in Pac-12 play and 15-5 overall but we're not buying in and neither are the books, who have made Oregon a very enticing -1˝-point favorite at home. To emphasize a little more how the books aren't buying Oregon's success, consider that the Beavers are 3-5 in the conference and have lost 13 straight conference road games. However, this time of year, overvalued and overrated teams get exposed very quickly and the Ducks are far less talented, individually and combined, than their in-state rivals. The Beavers are so much more dangerous with the 5th most points scored per game in the country compared to the Ducks 157th ranking. In assists per game, the Beavers rank 6th while the Ducks rank 151st. In rebounds per games, the Ducks rank 240th. This is an Oregon team that has somehow managed to win a lot of games with ugly numbers and many flaws and it's simply unsustainable. The Ducks are perceived to be the better team by the betting public when in fact, they're not and what we get here is a road hungry and superior visitor taking back a small tag. Play: Oregon State +109 (Risking 2 units).

NIAGARA +3 over Manhattan

We'll stick with our philosophy here of selling high and we endorse that philosphy even more against teams on the road. The Manhattan Jaspers have won six in a row to shoot up the MAAC standings into a tie with Iona and Loyola. The Jaspers are now 8-2 in the conference and 15-7 overall. Meanwhile, the Purple Eagles are just 4-6 in the conference and 13-9 overall. Niagara went into Manhattan last Sunday and lost by just seven in a game with some interesting notes. First, the Jaspers outscored Niagara by 17 from the stripe and that's not going to happen again in a road game. Secondly, Niagara had less turnovers, more steals and outscored the Jaspers by 10 on the floor. The Purple Eagles are a nice home and cover team. They're now 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in last 24 conference games and they're 10-1 ATS in last 11 against Manhattan. The Jaspers will play their third road contest in past four games and tail end of back-to-back road contests after playing in Canisius on Friday. With two home games on deck this coming week including a showdown against Iona, the Jaspers are ripe for the taking. Play: Niagara +3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[TheGame]

Arlon Hoops

Connecticut

[TheGame]

 
Jim Feist

Manhattan vs Niagara
Pick: Manhattan

Manhattan on a hot streak, winners of six straight games. But what I like about this club is how well they have covered spreads this season. Not only are they 6-1 ATS in the last seven, but they are 15-5 ATS on the season and a astonishing 11-2 ATS on the road. These clubs met just 7 days ago and while Manhattan was the straight up winner (71-64), the Jaspers didn't cover the 8 1/2 points spread - their only non- cover in the last 7 games. Now they visit Niagara on Sunday. Niagara is coming off a home loss to Loyola Maryland, 69-57. The Purple Eagles trailed almost the entire game to Loyola. It was Niagara's second straight loss after a three-game winning streak. I like teams who prove they can cover spreads and that is just what we have today with Manhattan. I don't usually like laying points on the road in conference, but this Manhattan team has been good as gold for bettors. Take Manhattan on Sunday.
Sean Murphy

Marist @ Fairfield
Pick: Fairfield -15

Fairfield has been a bankroll-burner lately, going 1-6-1 ATS over its last eight games, but I don't think there's any reason to get too down on the Stags right now.

Consider that they've faced a brutal schedule. Since taking care of business in a blowout win over Canisius on New Year's Day, the Stags have faced Siena, Manhattan, Loyola-Maryland, Rider, St. Peter's, and Iona in consecutive games. Only the matchup with St. Peter's was a gimme, and Fairfield had little trouble in a 75-63 win on that night.

All told, the Stags have gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS against the MAAC's weakest teams this season. Today's opponent, Marist, certainly falls into that category.

The Red Foxes have dropped six games in a row, both SU and ATS, with their only win since the start of 2012 coming against St. Peter's (they had to fight tooth and nail for a four-point decision).

Marist has done nothing but regress in conference play, particularly over the last few weeks. The Red Foxes are averaging only 59.8 points per game on a miserable 32.1% shooting over their last five contests.

Defensively, they haven't been much better, giving up 76 ppg on 47.6% shooting over that period.

The last time these two teams met, Fairfield cruised to a 55-31 victory in last year's MAAC Tournament. Since the start of 2010, the Stags are 3-1 ATS in this series, with all three of those wins coming by at least 15 points, which happens to be the current posted number today.

After a disappointing home loss against Iona on Friday, which dropped it to 5-4 in MAAC play, I'm confident we'll see Fairfield take its frustrations out on Marist this afternoon.
Bryan Power

L.A. Lakers @ Minnesota
PICK: L.A. Lakers +1.5

Having lost last night in Milwaukee to fall to 1-7 SU on the road (I was on the Bucks), look for the Lakers to take this game w/ Minnesota very seriously and thus pull out the victory. LA has beaten the T'wolves 17 straight times now and has covered in each of their previous three trips to the land of 10,000 lakes. The Timberwolves are probably "feeling a bit too much of themselves" after wins over Dallas and San Antonio. I don't see them being mature enough to defeat such a desperate and focused Lakers team. This is some amazing value w/ LA actually being a slight dog here. Take note that Minnesota is 1-5 ATS following consecutive SU dog wins. Take LA Lakers
Rob Vinciletti

Oregon St vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -1

The Ducks have owned the Beavers here at home winning 13 of the last 14 in the series here of late. The Ducks are 11-2 here this year and have won 5 of 6 in January. When the total is 150 1555 they have won 3 of 4. Oregon St is 0-5 straight up the last 15 years on the road when the total is this high at 150 to 155. They are 5--1 off a win and have dropped 23 of 28 on the road. In the Civil war hoops style we will back the Home team. Take Oregon Tonight.
Marc Lawrence

Bulls at Heat Jan
Play: Under

The best the Eastern Conference has to offer squares off at American Airlines in Miami when the Bulls and Heat battle as Chicago looks to avenge last year's playoff loss. If there is one staple we can rely on in games involving playoff quality teams its defense and both of these teams bring it to the table. That's confirmed by the fact they have gone UNDER the number in 10 of the last 13 games in this series. With The Bulls having stayed UNDER the total in five of their last six games on Sundays to boot, look for another low-scoring playoff intensity tussle here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER.

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